A SEISMIC surge in mobile subscriptions is anticipated to transform the digital landscape of sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East/North Africa (MENA) region by 2029, as revealed by the Ericsson Mobility Report released in November.
Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to lead the global charge, poised to reach a staggering 1.1 billion mobile subscriptions by 2029, with a remarkable 67 percent of these – roughly 760 million – being smartphone subscriptions. Despite facing funding hurdles and grappling with high inflation, the telecom sector in the region has demonstrated remarkable resilience.
‘Connectivity has evolved into an essential requirement for voice, data, and enabling services such as banking, which historically experienced limited penetration,’ Ericsson highlighted.
Projections indicate a robust 3 percent year-over-year growth in total mobile subscriptions for the upcoming six years, with a noteworthy 9 percent increase in 4G subscriptions. Sub-Saharan Africa is also set to claim the highest surge in total mobile data traffic, with an expected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 33 percent in the coming years.
The rapid adoption of smartphones, particularly affordable models, is slated to fuel an annual data consumption surge of over 20 percent per smartphone, escalating from 6.7GB to a substantial 23GB monthly.
Notably, 4G subscriptions will spearhead new mobile subscriptions in the next half-decade, estimated to constitute half of all subscriptions in the region by 2029. Ericsson emphasised this shift as pivotal in shaping the telecom landscape, foreseeing a profound impact on education, commerce, healthcare, and social interactions.
However, while 4G ascends, 3G subscriptions are anticipated to dwindle to below 8 percent by 2029, shrinking from 19 percent in 2023. This decline aligns with the region’s progression toward enhanced connectivity and digital services integration, particularly mobile money services.
Despite the technological advancements, the report underscores the enduring relevance of 2G subscriptions, projected to maintain a significant 27 percent share in 2029. The predominance of 2G is attributed to limited broadband coverage in rural areas and challenges related to smartphone affordability.
In the realm of 5G, while its widespread adoption may take time, projections indicate a monumental annual growth rate of 60 percent between 2023 and 2029. The region is expected to host approximately 180 million 5G subscriptions by 2029, accounting for 16 percent of all mobile subscriptions, compared to a mere 1.1 percent in 2023.
To ensure optimal user experiences, service providers are urged to secure additional spectrum capacity or densify coverage, particularly in congested urban areas where service disruptions are increasingly prevalent.
Across Africa, around 15 countries have already launched commercial 5G services, predominantly in Eastern and Southern Africa, with more anticipated launches following spectrum releases in low- and mid-bands.
Furthermore, strategic spectrum deployment and the emergence of Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) are positioned to cater to escalating broadband demands. FWA, exemplified in markets like Angola, South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya, Zambia, and Zimbabwe, has rapidly gained traction, especially in the realm of 5G services.
In parallel, the MENA region is also set to experience substantial growth, with an anticipated 2.4 percent overall subscription rise and a significant 5 percent annual growth in smartphone subscriptions over the next five years. MENA’s mobile landscape is poised to witness robust growth in 4G and a monumental 41 percent compounded annual growth in 5G subscriptions, reflecting the region’s shifting digital landscape.
Ericsson foresees service providers increasingly championing mobile financial services and FWA solutions, particularly in parts of North Africa, to address burgeoning digital demands.
As sub-Saharan Africa and the MENA region navigate the evolving telecom sphere, these projections mark a transformative era, poised to redefine connectivity and digital accessibility across diverse communities.
This report highlights the remarkable surge in mobile subscriptions, smartphone adoption, and the strategic shift towards 4G and 5G networks in Sub-Saharan Africa and the MENA region. It emphasises the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead in catering to diverse digital needs and fostering connectivity across these regions.