ACCORDING to sources familiar with the matter, South Africa is contemplating hosting the annual meeting of leaders from BRICS nations entirely online to prevent Russian President Vladimir Putin from attending in person. The decision stems from an arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) in March, accusing Putin of war crimes in Ukraine. As a member of the ICC, South Africa is obligated to enforce the warrant, creating a potential diplomatic headache for the country.
A committee of ministers appointed by President Cyril Ramaphosa, tasked with resolving issues related to Putin’s arrest warrant, has discussed the possibility of a virtual summit, as disclosed by three individuals with direct knowledge of the proposal. Under this plan, most summit events, including the BRICS Business Forum and the meeting of foreign ministers, would still take place in South Africa, with only the heads of state gathering held online.
The cabinet is expected to make a decision on the proposal within the coming week, as stated by the sources. South Africa’s foreign ministry has not yet responded to requests for comment on the matter.
South Africa, as a signatory of the Rome Statute and a member of the ICC, would theoretically be obliged to arrest Putin if he were to enter the country. The committee, chaired by Deputy President Paul Mashatile and comprising Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana and Justice Minister Ronald Lamola, is exploring three additional scenarios alongside the virtual meeting option. These scenarios involve Putin attending without being arrested, his arrest upon arrival, or South Africa amending its laws to allow the disregard of an arrest warrant not issued through the United Nations Security Council, as is the case with Putin. However, the process of changing laws could take several months.
Hosting the summit virtually would provide a suitable resolution to South Africa’s predicament concerning Putin’s presence. Initially, the government had hoped to dissuade Putin from attending, but his agreement might be interpreted as a sign of weakness, undermining his carefully crafted strongman image. Last month, South Africa granted immunity to all BRICS heads of state, but it clarified that this was a procedural measure that did not guarantee Putin protection from arrest.
Nonetheless, South Africa would need to convince its BRICS partners that incorporating an online element is the best approach for a successful gathering. As Pretoria treads carefully around various national interests, it is mindful of not alienating its BRICS counterparts. A potential absence of Putin could unsettle other BRICS leaders, leading them to reconsider their participation.
Sources indicate that Beijing has conveyed to Pretoria that President Xi Jinping would not physically attend the summit if Putin were absent. Similar concerns have been expressed by Delhi. Informal discussions between South African diplomats and their BRICS counterparts have revealed China’s dislike of the idea of a virtual leaders’ meeting or a situation where Putin does not attend while others travel to Johannesburg.
A BRICS summit without Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping would not carry the same significance, as Indian diplomats have suggested in informal talks. South Africa is eager to avoid relinquishing the opportunity to host the annual conference, as hosting rights rotate among the BRICS nations. Handing over hosting responsibilities to another partner, such as China, is not a favoured option for South Africa, as it comes with tourism, trade, and deal-making prospects.
Brazil, unlike China and India, would not be a feasible alternative host due to potential ICC-related challenges similar to those faced by South Africa as a Rome Statute signatory.
Interestingly, a virtual summit may serve Putin’s interests, especially if the Ukrainian summer offensive gains significant traction on the battlefield. Under such circumstances, leaving Russia might not be a viable option for him.
Opinions differ on the effectiveness of a virtual meeting. According to David Monyae, Director of the Centre for Africa – China Studies at the University of Johannesburg, ‘A virtual meeting will not help much as South Africa’s BRICS partner will see it as a country with no backbone. Only if Putin willingly did not come will South Africa manage to host a decent conference.’
Sanusha Naidu, a senior research fellow at the Institute for Global Dialogue think-tank in Pretoria, stated that South Africa’s options are limited. She believes that persuading Putin to stay away was the best option for South Africa and suggests trying to convince him that participating online is preferable to attending in person.
