SENEGAL, hailed as Africa’s newest natural gas superstar, finds itself entangled in political turmoil just as it aims to capitalise on substantial oil and gas discoveries off its coast. The collaboration between industry giants BP, Woodside Energy Group, and Kosmos Energy promised transformative economic opportunities for the West African nation, yet persistent delays in the $4.8bn Grand Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA) gas project have cast a shadow over its prospects. These setbacks, compounded by recent political upheaval extending President Macky Sall’s term, jeopardise Senegal’s ability to leverage its energy resources for sustainable development.
In Senegal and beyond, the narrative of oil and gas windfalls driving prosperity has often been elusive. As Vijaya Ramachandran, director for energy and development at the Breakthrough Institute, tells Bloomberg, ‘Natural gas is mostly being exported, with African countries benefiting from foreign exchange revenues, but it is true that domestic needs for more energy are significant and are not being met.’ Despite boasting substantial energy reserves, domestic markets continue to struggle with energy deficits, exacerbating poverty and hindering industrial growth.
Senegal’s experience encapsulates this paradox. The envisioned economic boom from the GTA project, promising substantial LNG exports and oil production, now hangs in uncertainty. As Sokhna Ba, the youngest member of Senegal’s parliament, reflects, ‘The revenue could also be used to improve the living conditions of the population.’ Yet disputes over gas allocation between Senegal and BP have complicated matters, leaving the country’s hopes of utilizing gas for domestic electrification in limbo.
Mozambique and Ghana offer cautionary tales of similar trajectories. Khady Ndiaye, West Africa manager for Kosmos, notes, ‘BP has their interests; so does Senegal. The difference is that Senegal lacks the means and the expertise to develop its resources.’ Mozambique’s ambitious LNG plans faltered amid security concerns and market fluctuations, exacerbating debt and economic vulnerabilities. Ghana, despite significant oil discoveries, grapples with underutilized resources and fiscal challenges, highlighting the risks of mismanagement and missed opportunities for industrial development.
Africa’s energy landscape mirrors a broader dilemma. While the continent hosts abundant energy resources, including substantial oil and gas reserves, realising their potential hinges on navigating complex geopolitical dynamics and addressing domestic energy needs. Papa Daouda Diene, an analyst for the Natural Resource Governance Institute, emphasises, ‘The IMF has revised Senegal’s 2024 growth from 10.6 percent to 8.3 percent mainly due to the delays in hydrocarbon production.’
The imperative for African nations to assert greater control over their energy destinies is evident. Senegal’s national oil company, Petrosen, aspires to lead its energy projects, signalling a shift towards greater self-reliance and strategic autonomy. However, this transition requires robust governance frameworks and financial prudence to mitigate risks and maximise benefits for future generations.
Amidst these challenges, the urgency to address political instability and strengthen institutional capacities cannot be overstated. Joseph Medou, the general manager of Senegal’s gas network Reseau Gazier du Senegal, underscores the importance of proactive measures: ‘We don’t want to wait, we want to start building the pipeline network. The idea is to be ready before the gas project is completed.’
As Senegal grapples with the repercussions of political uncertainty and project delays, the need for holistic approaches to energy development becomes apparent. Balancing economic imperatives with social and environmental considerations is paramount to ensuring inclusive and sustainable growth. Only through concerted efforts to address governance gaps, foster regional cooperation, and prioritise domestic energy needs can Africa truly harness the transformative potential of its energy resources.
Senegal’s journey serves as a sobering reminder of the complexities inherent in Africa’s quest for energy security and economic prosperity. While oil and gas discoveries offer immense opportunities, their realisation demands strategic foresight, political stability, and effective governance. As Africa navigates its energy future, the lessons learned from Senegal’s experience underscore the imperative of fostering resilience, collaboration, and inclusive development to unlock the continent’s vast potential.
