A RECENT analysis by Rystad Energy shows that Africa is poised to outstrip Europe in geothermal energy capacity by 2030, with a projected $35bn investment targeted at Kenyan and Ethiopian projects in the East African Rift through 2050. While Africa currently possesses approximately 1 GW of geothermal capacity in 2023—only half of Europe’s total—upcoming projects are expected to more than double the continent’s geothermal capacity over the next seven years. With additional unannounced projects on the horizon, Africa’s geothermal capacity could potentially triple by 2030.
The introduction of geothermal power to Africa’s energy mix dates back to 1952 when the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) commissioned the Kiabukwa power plant, making it the third country in the world to build a geothermal facility. Today, the spotlight is on the East African Rift, where the collision of numerous tectonic plates provides ideal conditions for a virtually limitless source of geothermal energy.
‘The geothermal industry in Africa is picking up steam and could help meet soaring demand across the continent in the decades to come,’ says Daniel Holmedal, senior supply chain analyst at Rystad Energy. He adds, ‘Analysing already announced projects signals significant growth on the horizon, but developments that we project to come online given economics and demand really highlight the rapid build out. This growth will take the continent from being the sixth largest geothermal power generator in 2023 to the third largest in 2030.’
By 2050, Kenya and Ethiopia are expected to account for nearly 90 percent of Africa’s projected 13 GW in geothermal energy generation capacity. In contrast, Europe’s installed capacity is estimated to be only half of that—5.5 GW by mid-century, according to Rystad’s analysis. Kenya’s Olkaria geothermal facility, recognised as one of the world’s largest, boasts a total installed capacity of 720 MW, equivalent to 51 percent of Kenya’s total installed capacity.
Olkaria comprises four plants, namely Olkaria I, Olkaria II, Olkaria III, and Olkaria IV, utilising steam extracted from wells drilled to depths of up to 3,000 metres in the Olkaria geothermal resource within the East African Rift. This geothermal reservoir is hosted within 0.9–1.65-million-year-old fractured trachyte and rhyolite rocks, with wells producing 25 percent dry steam that is piped to the power plant, while separated water is reinjected.
Kenya’s government funded 70 percent of the Olkaria project, with support from the Japanese International Cooperation Agency (JICA), the German Development Bank (KfW), and the European Investment Bank (EIB). JICA provided a $123 million loan, while KfW and EIB contributed $60 million and $80 million, respectively.
Following the project’s success, Kenya has emerged as a leader in African geothermal energy development, boasting a total installed capacity of over 1,600 MW. The Geothermal Development Company (GDC) of Kenya aims to expand further through the development of new projects, including the Menengai Geothermal project, Baringo-Silali Prospect, and Suswa Prospect.
Kenya’s GDC and KenGen also provide drilling and other services to their East African Rift neighbours, particularly Ethiopia, which is prioritising geothermal projects due to its heavy reliance on hydropower. In addition to Ethiopia, they are exploring new growth areas in Rwanda, Democratic Republic of Congo, and Comoros.
Over the next three decades, the power supply in Kenya and Ethiopia is expected to increase sixfold, rising from 34 to 222 TWh. Rystad Energy projects that geothermal supply from these two countries will exceed 10 GW by 2050, potentially reaching as high as 12 GW.
In Ethiopia, geothermal energy currently powers only one of the country’s 22 power plants, Aluto Langano, which produces 7.3 MW of power. However, Ethiopian authorities are eyeing up to 17 geothermal projects with the aim of achieving a target of 35,000 MW in installed capacity for domestic needs and exports.
