Keypoints:
- Hichilema seeks a second presidential term
- Living costs test Zambia’s economic recovery
- Copper raises the election’s global stakes
ZAMBIANS are voting in presidential, parliamentary and local elections on Thursday as President Hakainde Hichilema seeks a second term, asking voters to judge whether recovery from sovereign default has improved life enough to keep him in power.
The election has become a test of the gap between stronger macroeconomic indicators and household reality. Hichilema can point to debt restructuring, lower inflation and renewed investment, but living costs remain a major weakness as challenger Brian Mundubile seeks to turn economic frustration into votes. The divide was already central to Zambia’s pre-election economic debate.
Polls are due to close at 6pm local time, with Reuters reporting that results are expected by Monday. Analysts cited by the news agency regard Hichilema as the favourite because of incumbency and a fragmented opposition, although Mundubile has drawn large crowds in some areas.
Recovery reaches the ballot box
Hichilema took office in 2021 after Zambia defaulted on its sovereign debt in 2020. His government subsequently completed a lengthy restructuring process and rebuilt relations with international lenders and investors.
Africa Briefing reported last month that Zambia was drawing fresh foreign investment after its debt recovery, particularly in mining, energy and agriculture.
Reuters said the IMF projects growth of 4.3 percent this year, up from 3.8 percent last year, while inflation has fallen to its lowest level in years.
Yet the political question is whether those gains are visible beyond government statistics.
Samuel Chitendwe, a 47-year-old welder and father of four who told Reuters he voted for Mundubile, said voters were tired of hearing about economic progress.
Hichilema’s supporters point to measures that directly affect households. University of Zambia student James Phiri told Reuters he backed the president after the government restored meal allowances for students.
Copper raises the stakes
The election is also being watched abroad because of Zambia’s importance to global copper supply.
Zambia is Africa’s second-largest copper producer after the DRC, while major projects are expected to expand output as demand rises for minerals used in power networks, electric vehicles and digital infrastructure.
Africa Briefing has reported that projects including KoBold Metals’ Mingomba development are reinforcing Zambia’s position in the critical-minerals race.
China is already a major investor in the sector, while the United States is seeking greater access to strategic minerals.
That competition surfaced in negotiations over a US health agreement. Reuters reported that the proposed package could be worth up to $2bn over five years, while Zambia said Washington wanted mineral access tied to the talks. Africa Briefing previously detailed the dispute over a $320m component of the proposed health funding framework.
Credibility of vote under scrutiny
The campaign has also faced allegations of political repression, which Hichilema’s government denies.
Freedom House rates Zambia as ‘partly free’ and says opposition parties face legal and practical obstacles to fair competition despite regular multiparty elections.
The issue puts pressure on election authorities to deliver a credible count in a country known for peaceful transfers of power.
What happens next?
A presidential candidate must secure more than 50 percent of valid votes cast to win in the first round. Otherwise, the top two candidates proceed to a run-off within 37 days.
The Electoral Commission of Zambia lists 8,786,300 registered voters. At the time of publication, its official results portal showed no approved presidential results.
For Hichilema, the verdict will turn on whether voters believe Zambia’s economic repair has begun to reach their homes. For the wider region, the election offers another test of whether painful reforms and stronger headline numbers can translate into political reward.
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