Keypoints:
- Growth projected at 6 percent in 2027
- Copper and energy anchor expansion plans
- Debt and climate risks cloud outlook
ZAMBIA is aiming for average economic growth of close to 7 percent between 2027 and 2029 as it tries to move beyond years of economic repair and into a period of stronger production, investment and job creation.
The government’s 2027–2029 Medium-Term Budget Plan and 2027 National Budget Green Paper puts growth at 6 percent in 2027, rising to 7.5 percent in 2028 before easing to 7.1 percent in 2029.
Taken together, those figures point to average growth of just under 7 percent over the three years.
The target comes at a turning point for Zambia. For much of the past few years, economic policy has been dominated by debt restructuring, inflation, pressure on the kwacha and electricity shortages. The focus is now shifting towards a more basic question: can the country turn improving economic stability into higher output, more investment and better incomes?
From stabilisation to expansion
Finance and National Planning Minister Situmbeko Musokotwane has made clear that the government wants the next phase of its economic programme to be about growth, not just repair.
The 2027–2029 Medium-Term Budget Plan and Green Paper places agriculture, mining, energy, tourism, manufacturing and exports at the heart of that effort.
There are already signs of progress.
Annual inflation fell to 6.1 percent in September 2026 from 11.2 percent in December 2025 and 16.7 percent at the end of 2024.
Gross international reserves have also climbed above $5.5bn, enough to cover more than four months of imports, while the kwacha averaged around K17.81 to the dollar during 2026.
That matters because Zambia has spent years trying to restore confidence after becoming Africa’s first pandemic-era sovereign defaulter in 2020.
As Africa Briefing reported on Zambia’s post-default recovery, progress on debt restructuring and IMF-backed reforms has helped steady the economy and improve investor sentiment.
The next challenge is harder: turning those gains into sustained growth.
Copper sits at the centre
Much of Zambia’s growth bet rests on copper.
The government wants annual production to reach three million tonnes, part of a broader push that also includes targets of 10 million tonnes of maize, 10,000MW of electricity generation and five million tourist arrivals.
Copper is central to that strategy because global demand remains strong, driven by power grids, renewable energy systems, electric vehicles and digital infrastructure.
For Zambia, that creates both an opportunity and a test.
The country is already attracting renewed attention from investors looking to expand or revive copper projects, while higher prices have improved the outlook for some producers.
Record copper prices have already reshaped the outlook for Zambia and DR Congo, while a new wave of mining investment could push output higher over the next decade.
Projects such as KoBold Metals’ Mingomba development are part of that picture.
Africa Briefing has also examined how major mining companies are reshaping Africa’s metals pipeline, including projects with the potential to lift Zambia’s copper production.
IMF sees strong growth, but less
The government’s forecasts are more ambitious than some outside estimates.
In its January 2026 assessment, the IMF projected Zambia’s real GDP growth at 5.8 percent in 2026, 6 percent in 2027 and 5.7 percent in 2028.
The Fund still sees mining, improved electricity supply, agriculture and manufacturing as important sources of growth.
So the broad direction is similar, even if the numbers are not.
Where Lusaka is more optimistic is in how quickly those sectors can deliver.
The IMF has also warned that Zambia’s debt, while considered sustainable, remains at high risk of both overall and external debt distress.
That leaves the government with little room for complacency. Faster growth will have to come without undermining the fiscal discipline that helped Zambia emerge from the worst of its debt crisis.
Power remains a weak point
Electricity could be just as important as copper.
Zambia’s heavy reliance on hydropower became a major weakness when drought sharply reduced generation and forced widespread power rationing.
Businesses, mines and manufacturers all felt the effects.
That experience helps explain why the government is targeting 10,000MW of generation capacity. Without more reliable electricity, Zambia will struggle to expand mining, manufacturing and other energy-intensive industries at the pace it wants.
Power will also shape how much value Zambia can capture from the global race for critical minerals.
Zambia has become an increasingly important junction in the competition for African mineral corridors, with China, the United States and other partners backing transport and infrastructure projects linked to the Copperbelt.
But railways and mining corridors can only do so much if electricity remains unreliable.
Climate risk hangs over the plan
Agriculture is another area where the outlook could change quickly.
Cabinet has warned that a possible El Niño-induced drought during the 2026/27 farming season could squeeze government finances and disrupt planned programmes.
A severe drought would hit more than farming.
It could reduce food output, push up prices and weaken hydropower generation at the same time, creating another round of pressure on households and businesses.
The Green Paper also points to geopolitical tensions, weaker-than-expected revenue collection and rising spending pressures as risks to the outlook.
For now, the government says it will focus on raising more domestic revenue, cutting inefficient spending and attracting concessional and climate-related financing.
The harder test is whether lower inflation, stronger reserves and progress on debt can now translate into jobs, investment and higher output.
A near-7 percent average growth rate through 2029 would mark a significant step up for Zambia.
But hitting that pace will depend on whether new copper production, more reliable power and stronger agricultural investment arrive quickly enough to support the wider economy.
That is where Zambia’s next economic story will be decided.
