Keypoints:
- Election will test support for economic reforms
- Living costs remain the dominant voter concern
- Result could influence mining investment and African reform agendas
ZAMBIA’S presidential election on August 13 is shaping up to be a referendum on President Hakainde Hichilema’s economic record, with voters weighing signs of macroeconomic recovery against the continued pressure of rising living costs. The outcome is being closely watched by investors, lenders and policymakers across Africa as a gauge of whether ambitious economic reforms can deliver political rewards.
Nearly five years after Hichilema inherited an economy burdened by sovereign debt, his administration points to lower inflation, debt restructuring and renewed investor confidence as evidence that difficult reforms are working. His opponents argue that many Zambians have yet to experience meaningful improvements in their daily lives, turning the election into a broader test of whether economic stability alone is enough to secure a second term. The contest has become one of the continent’s most closely watched political and economic events.
What’s changing?
Since taking office in 2021, Hichilema’s government has focused on restoring fiscal stability after Zambia became Africa’s first sovereign default during the Covid-19 pandemic. The administration negotiated major debt restructuring agreements, rebuilt relations with international lenders and pursued reforms aimed at attracting investment while reducing pressure on public finances. The election will determine whether voters endorse that strategy or favour a stronger emphasis on easing household economic hardship.
Under Zambia’s electoral system, a presidential candidate must secure more than 50 percent of valid votes to win outright. If no candidate reaches that threshold, a run-off election is held between the two leading candidates.
Recovery has strengthened confidence
The government’s economic record has improved noticeably over the past year.
Inflation slowed to 6.5 percent in June, its lowest level in more than eight years, while the IMF expects Zambia’s economy to expand by about 4.3 percent this year. Debt restructuring agreements with official and private creditors have also strengthened confidence among investors after years of financial uncertainty.
The improving outlook follows S&P’s upgrade of Zambia’s sovereign rating, which reflected progress on debt restructuring and fiscal reforms.
Those improvements have been reinforced by stronger copper prices and renewed interest in Zambia’s mining sector, which remains the country’s largest source of export earnings.
For Hichilema, the figures support his argument that difficult reforms are beginning to produce sustainable results after years of economic instability.
Living costs dominate the campaign
Despite improving macroeconomic indicators, household finances remain the defining issue for many voters.
Families continue to face high food prices, electricity costs and limited employment opportunities. The effects of a severe drought over the past two years reduced agricultural production and hydroelectric generation, contributing to power shortages that affected businesses and households alike.
Opposition candidate Brian Mundubile has argued that official economic indicators do not reflect the everyday experiences of ordinary citizens. The opposition has also criticised the government’s cybercrime legislation and proposed constitutional reforms, accusations the government rejects.
Political analysts nevertheless suggest Hichilema enters the election with an advantage, supported by improving economic indicators and a fragmented opposition, while cautioning that frustrations over the cost of living remain politically significant.
Copper industry remains central
Beyond domestic politics, the election carries major implications for Zambia’s mining sector.
Africa’s second-largest copper producer is seeking to increase annual output to 3 million tonnes by 2031, positioning itself to benefit from rising global demand for copper used in electric vehicles, renewable energy infrastructure and electricity transmission networks.
The government has sought to attract international investment through policy stability and regulatory reforms, making continuity an important consideration for mining companies evaluating long-term projects.
The election result is therefore expected to influence investor confidence in one of Africa’s most strategically important producers of transition minerals.
Why Africa is watching
The significance of Zambia’s election extends well beyond its borders.
Several African governments are implementing IMF-supported reforms, fiscal consolidation and debt restructuring while facing growing public concern over inflation and living costs. Zambia has become one of the continent’s most prominent examples of economic recovery following sovereign default, making the election an important political test of whether such reforms can retain public support.
The outcome is also expected to shape Zambia’s continuing engagement with the IMF as discussions continue on the country’s next phase of economic cooperation.
What happens next?
Voting on August 13 will determine not only who governs Zambia for the next five years but also whether voters believe improving macroeconomic indicators outweigh the continued pressure on household finances.
The result is likely to resonate far beyond Zambia. It will offer one of Africa’s clearest tests of whether fiscal discipline, debt restructuring and investor confidence can translate into electoral success at a time when many citizens remain focused on the cost of living.
