Keypoints:
- Energy and mineral exports are largely shielded from US tariffs
- Agrifood and industrial exports face sharp contraction
- AfCFTA seen as key to spreading energy-led gains
AFRICA’S energy and mining sectors are emerging as rare beneficiaries of the United States’ 2025 tariff regime, offering a strategic buffer as most of the continent’s export sectors brace for contraction. A new joint report by the UN Economic Commission for Africa, the African Development Bank and the African Union Commission finds that exemptions granted to commodities linked to US strategic interests are shielding large parts of Africa’s resource exports from the full impact of rising protectionism.
While Africa’s overall exports to the United States are projected to fall sharply, energy-related trade stands out as an exception. According to the report, electricity exports are forecast to grow by between 41.9 percent and 51.9 percent, gas exports by 35 percent to 48 percent, and crude oil exports by 15.5 percent to 20.7 percent. Shipments of critical minerals, grouped under non-iron metals, could rise by between 35.9 percent and 41.3 percent.
This performance contrasts starkly with other sectors. Agrifood exports to the US are projected to decline by as much as 30 percent, while industrial goods could suffer losses exceeding 70 percent under the new tariff scenarios, reinforcing concerns about Africa’s exposure to external trade shocks.
AfCFTA positioned as structural response
For continental institutions, the divergence is not merely cyclical. The report argues that the current energy windfall must be deliberately integrated into the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area to avoid entrenching Africa’s long-standing role as a supplier of raw materials.
The ECA, AfDB and AUC emphasise the need to channel energy revenues and infrastructure into regional value chains that support downstream manufacturing. Priority sectors include agro-processing, pharmaceuticals and light industry—areas most exposed to US tariff escalation and global protectionist trends.
Energy market integration is identified as a critical enabler of this strategy. Even under adverse global trade conditions, intra-African energy trade is projected to rise modestly by 0.04 percent, signalling latent demand across the continent. AfDB-supported power pools, cross-border electricity transmission lines, gas pipelines and shared storage infrastructure are increasingly framed as AfCFTA instruments capable of lowering production costs, easing non-tariff barriers and improving the competitiveness of African manufacturers.
Trade leverage beyond AGOA
The report also highlights implications for Africa’s external trade negotiations. Despite US claims of ‘trade injustice’, Africa runs a trade deficit with the United States of approximately $1.6bn in goods and around $6.6bn in services, underscoring its position as a net buyer rather than a systemic threat.
Continued US dependence on African energy and critical minerals, the institutions argue, gives the continent leverage in post-AGOA trade discussions—provided African states negotiate collectively through the African Union rather than bilaterally.
Uneven protection across economies
The cushioning effect of tariff exemptions remains uneven. Libya is described as being ‘nearly untouched’ by the new tariffs due to the dominance of crude oil in its export profile. Nigeria, Angola and Ghana face weighted average tariff increases of just 0.8 percent to 2.6 percent, compared with a continental average of 7.1 percent.
While this insulation benefits resource-rich economies, the report stresses the urgency of using AfCFTA mechanisms—rules of origin, regional industrial hubs and energy services liberalisation—to spread gains more broadly across the continent.
As 2026 begins, the central question is whether Africa’s energy boom will remain an enclave advantage or evolve into the backbone of continental integration. With energy exports expanding at double-digit rates while most other sectors contract, the window for action is narrow but consequential.
