Keypoints:
- Museveni is seeking a seventh term after nearly four decades in power
- Opposition challenger Bobi Wine draws strong backing from young voters
- Succession questions and security concerns loom over the vote
UGANDANS go to the polls on Thursday in a closely watched presidential and parliamentary election that could extend President Yoweri Museveni’s rule beyond four decades, even as political tensions rise and questions deepen over who might eventually succeed the veteran leader.
At 81, Museveni is aiming for a seventh term since taking power in 1986 after leading a guerrilla rebellion that ended years of turmoil. Political analysts say his firm control over state institutions and the electoral process makes victory for both the president and his ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) party highly likely. Even so, the conduct of the vote and Museveni’s final margin are expected to shape Uganda’s political trajectory in the years ahead.
A familiar contest, sharper stakes
Museveni’s main challenger is opposition leader and pop star-turned-politician Bobi Wine, who finished second in the 2021 election with about 35 percent of the vote. Wine, now 43, has since consolidated his appeal among young and urban voters frustrated by unemployment, corruption and what they see as the steady erosion of political freedoms.
Other candidates include former army commander Mugisha Muntu, who has campaigned on governance and anti-corruption reforms, and veteran legislator Nandala Mafabi, a former opposition leader in parliament. Despite the broader field, analysts describe the race as effectively a rematch of the 2021 contest.
Competing visions for Uganda’s future
Museveni has campaigned on continuity, using the slogan ‘protecting the gains’ to highlight what he describes as decades of relative stability and economic progress. He has pledged to turn Uganda into a middle-income country by expanding manufacturing, adding value to agricultural exports such as coffee and cotton, and capitalising on the long-delayed start of commercial oil production expected later this year.
Wine has focused his campaign on restoring civil liberties, accusing Museveni of presiding over ‘40 years of dictatorship’, an allegation the government denies. He has promised to tackle corruption, create jobs for young people and review oil production-sharing agreements with international companies if they are deemed to disadvantage Ugandan interests.
Security fears and youth frustration
Uganda’s elections have frequently been accompanied by violence and security crackdowns. Ahead of the 2021 vote, security forces killed more than 50 people during protests sparked by Wine’s arrest. In the run-up to this year’s polls, hundreds of opposition supporters have been detained, and at least one person has been killed at a campaign event.
Last week, authorities announced a ban on live broadcasts of riots, ‘unlawful processions’ and other violent incidents, citing public order concerns. The move comes against a regional backdrop of youth-led unrest in countries such as Kenya and Tanzania, highlighting the political risks posed by widespread frustration among young populations facing economic hardship and limited political voice.
Foreign ties and succession under scrutiny
Internationally, Uganda remains a key Western security partner, contributing troops to fight al Shabaab in Somalia and hosting Africa’s largest refugee population. At the same time, Kampala has deepened economic ties with China, Russia and the United Arab Emirates. China National Offshore Oil Corporation is one of the lead partners in Uganda’s Lake Albert oil project, which is due to begin producing crude later this year.
Beyond the immediate outcome, observers are closely watching for signals about succession. Museveni is widely believed to be positioning his son, army chief Muhoozi Kainerugaba, as a potential successor, although the president denies grooming him for the role. Analysts say any further drop from Museveni’s 58 percent showing in 2021, his weakest result to date, could weaken his authority ahead of an eventual transition.
