Keypoints:
- Lab-grown gems undercut natural diamond sales
- Tariffs and weak exports deepen Botswana’s slump
- Job losses rise as mining revenues fall
IN a quiet village on the outskirts of Gaborone, former diamond cutter Keorapetse Koko is still coming to terms with how swiftly Botswana’s most prized industry has declined. For 17 years, she polished the stones that shaped the country’s international identity and helped lift it from poverty into one of Africa’s most stable and better-managed economies.
A year after losing her job, the 40-year-old mother of two is overwhelmed by unpaid debts and uncertainty. ‘Every month they call me asking for money,’ she said. ‘But where do I get it?’ Her monthly pay once hovered around $300, supported by employer-provided medical cover — a decent income in a country where the average monthly salary is about $500.
She is one among many as Botswana’s once-reliable natural diamond trade faces mounting pressure from global forces reshaping the market.
A legacy built on natural stones
Diamonds discovered in 1967, a year after independence, transformed Botswana’s economic trajectory almost overnight. The country became the world’s top producer by value and second by volume after Russia, with revenues funding schools, hospitals, roads, and public services that became central to its development model.
The stones also became woven into Botswana’s identity. Olympic champion Letsile Tebogo fronted a De Beers campaign highlighting how natural diamonds had financed national progress.
But that legacy is now under strain. Synthetic diamonds — produced in weeks, mainly in China and India, and sold at up to 80 percent less — have surged from one percent of global sales in 2015 to nearly 20 percent today.
Tariffs worsen the downturn
Joseph Tsimako, president of the Botswana Mine Workers Union, which represents around 10,000 workers, says the situation is critical. ‘Diamonds built our country,’ he said. ‘Now, as the world changes, we must find a way to make sure they don’t destroy the lives of the people who helped build it.’
He warns that new 15 percent US tariffs on stones mined, cut and polished in Botswana, introduced by the Trump administration, risk deepening the decline. Botswana relies on diamond exports for roughly 80 percent of foreign earnings and around a third of government revenue.
The impact is already clear. Debswana — a joint venture between De Beers and the government — saw its revenue halve last year and has paused operations at select mines. Statistics Botswana has reported a 43 percent drop in second-quarter output, the steepest fall in the country’s mining history. The World Bank expects a three percent economic contraction this year, marking a second year of decline.
Synthetic surge reshapes global demand
Siddarth Gothi, chair of the Botswana Diamond Manufacturers Association, said lab-grown gems have created ‘stiff competition, especially in lower-quality stones’. Global natural diamond prices have fallen about 30 percent since 2022.
Celebrities — from Billie Eilish to Bollywood personalities — and social media influencers have fuelled the trend, appealing especially to young buyers seeking cheaper, conflict-free and environmentally marketed alternatives. Retailers in southern Africa report that synthetics now dominate engagement ring sales.
Producers seek coordinated response
The downturn extends beyond Botswana. Falling production in Namibia, Angola, South Africa and Congo has triggered job losses and financial pressure. In June, these countries agreed to pool one percent of annual diamond revenues into a global marketing campaign led by the Natural Diamond Council, backed by De Beers and Rio Tinto. The goal: rebuild demand by emphasising rarity, origin, and community benefits.
Botswana has also launched a sovereign wealth fund to diversify beyond mining, though details remain limited. Tourism and other minerals, including gold and uranium, are expected to play a bigger role.
Human cost of a shifting market
For Koko, diversification feels far removed from daily survival. ‘I was the breadwinner in a big family,’ she said. ‘Now I don’t even know how to feed my own.’
Her specialised skills have little value outside the diamond industry — an irony not lost on a worker who helped polish stones she could never afford.
