Keypoints:
- S&P upgrades Ghana’s sovereign rating to B– with stable outlook
- Stronger external balance and fiscal reform drive recovery
- Debt burden remains high despite macroeconomic gains
S&P Global Ratings has raised Ghana’s long- and short-term sovereign credit ratings to ‘B–/B’ from ‘CCC+/C’, citing the country’s improved fiscal management, rising reserves, and stronger external balances. The outlook remains stable, reflecting a cautiously positive view of Ghana’s medium-term trajectory.
The upgrade, announced on November 7, 2025, marks the most significant recognition yet of the government’s efforts to restore macroeconomic stability since the 2022 debt default.
According to S&P, Ghana’s economic fundamentals have strengthened due to better policy execution and the support of the IMF’s Extended Credit Facility.
External position strengthens amid currency rebound
S&P noted that Ghana’s foreign-exchange reserves have risen to about $10.4 bn, or roughly 9 percent of GDP, as foreign inflows improved and the cedi appreciated faster than anticipated.
The agency projected real GDP growth of 6 percent in 2025, compared with 4.5 percent previously, driven by stronger gold exports, higher cocoa production, and improved investor confidence.
A current-account surplus of 4.6 percent of GDP — the highest on record — has also helped stabilise the currency and ease external pressures. These gains, S&P said, show that Ghana’s economic recovery is taking hold and that the balance-of-payments position is materially stronger than during the crisis period.
Fiscal consolidation and debt restructuring pay off
The ratings upgrade also reflects the country’s gradual fiscal consolidation under the IMF-backed reform plan.
Interest payments, which previously absorbed about 44 percent of government revenue, are expected to decline to around 20 percent over the medium term.
Ghana has made substantial progress in its domestic debt exchange programme, launched in 2023, and completed the restructuring of $13.1 bn in Eurobond obligations in October 2024.
S&P acknowledged these steps as key milestones in restoring debt sustainability, noting that the government has maintained steady primary surpluses and tightened expenditure controls.
Risks remain despite progress
However, S&P cautioned that Ghana’s credit profile remains constrained by elevated public debt, weak institutional capacity, and heavy reliance on commodity exports.
Gold accounts for over 60 percent of export earnings, making the economy vulnerable to price volatility.
The agency also warned that while negotiations with external creditors have advanced, about $5bn in unresolved claims — roughly 7 percent of total debt — still pose a risk to Ghana’s medium-term stability.
Investor confidence rising but fragile
S&P’s decision signals growing investor confidence in Ghana’s reform agenda and paves the way for a potential return to international capital markets.
Analysts say the upgrade could lower borrowing costs and attract renewed portfolio inflows, although Ghana’s sovereign bonds will remain non-investment grade for now.
‘This rating action reflects a clear turning point for Ghana,’ S&P said, adding that further upgrades would depend on continued fiscal discipline, resilient growth, and progress in completing debt-restructuring negotiations.
