Keypoints:
- Political crises undermine AU initiative
- Amnesty Month poorly executed across states
- Rising conflicts threaten 2030 target
SILENCING the Guns – the African Union’s ambitious initiative to end armed conflict on the continent – does not seem to be going anywhere. It is just not working.
Remember, the initial target date was 2020. But with the increase in terrorist activities in the Sahel, unconstitutional political activities and the huge flow of licit and illicit arms into the continent, a new deadline of 2030 was set.
Rising violence from Sudan to Tanzania
The situation in Sudan is deteriorating fast. In Tanzania, after the October elections, soldiers were accused of opening fire on unarmed civilians, with the death toll close to 1,000.
Many of those killed were innocent people going about their daily business when the trigger-happy soldiers let loose with their weapons. Most of the bodies have not been recovered.
This is the Tanzania of Julius Nyerere, who fashioned a united nation. He must be turning in his grave after President Samia Suluhu unleashed violence against her citizens because she wanted to hang on to power at all costs.
A southern African friend of mine who is an academic in the US was outraged by ‘tone deaf African leaders’ such as Suluhu. ‘First, she tears her country apart with a fraudulent electoral victory. And now she appoints her family members to the cabinet. Shameless!’ He was referring to the announcement that Suluhu had not just appointed her daughter to the Cabinet but had included her son-in-law.
Even her inauguration riled my friend. ‘After claiming a 98 per cent win based on electoral figures that did not correspond to the registered voting population given out earlier by her own government, she then went on to be inaugurated at a military barracks [in Dodoma] with a few invited guests only, upending the tradition of a public swearing-in in a stadium. Was she scared of the 98 per cent who had supported her?’
‘Silencing the Guns must also apply to soldiers who shoot innocent civilians’
Why leadership crises feed armed conflict
You might be wondering why I am focusing on Suluhu when I am talking about Silencing the Guns. Well, in my experience as a journalist covering Africa, I have noted so many times how political jiggery pokery has eventually led to armed conflicts – sooner or later, West Africa being a major case in point, as I write in my article on ECOWAS @50 in this edition.
Dr Mohamed Ibn Chambas, the current African Union High Representative for Silencing the Guns, must have his work cut out. In 2019, when he was head of the United Nations Office for West Africa and the Sahel (UNOWAS), he reported: ‘Pre-electoral and post-electoral periods…continue to be characterised by tensions, antagonistic contests and disputes, including around non-consensual constitutional amendments.
‘Addressing such potential sources of conflict remains a major priority ahead of the upcoming cycle of high-stake presidential elections in West Africa … Furthermore, tensions around electoral periods derail the necessary attention to the pressing need to address questions of development and inequality,’ he added.
These recurring problems highlighted by Chambas are the bane of the move to silence the guns on the continent.
Africa amnesty month: a misfiring effort
The AU declared the whole of September each year as Africa Amnesty Month that calls ‘for the surrender and collection of illicit small arms and light weapons without fear of arrest or prosecution’.
A worthy idea. But the problem is that how widely known is Africa Amnesty Month on the continent? More so among those caught up in armed conflicts.
Even the AU itself is in sixes and sevens when it comes to organising the event. It proposes the states and dates for the continental launch, with the UN Office for Disarmament Affairs providing technical and financial assistance.
But guess what? This year, after several consultations, the AU Peace and Security Council proposed October 2 and 3 (not September!) for the continental event in Uganda. This was, my contact told me, ‘for various reasons including availability of officials and other engagements in their calendar both from the AU and host country, Uganda’s side’.
Mali was the other country that had requested support for the commemoration of the activities. While the AU was going round in circles, other states, including Mali and Kenya, launched their activities.
A herculean task ahead
Since 2020, under the AU–UNODA Africa Amnesty Month project, UNODA, in cooperation with the AU Commission and with implementation support from the Regional Centre on Small Arms (RECSA), has assisted 16 African states in commemorating Africa Amnesty Month and assisted in the voluntary surrender of illicit arms. So far, the project has collected and destroyed more than 22,000 illicit weapons, according to AU-UNODA.
Overall, it is an uphill task for Silencing the Guns if the underlying causes that make the guns get louder and louder are not directly addressed. These include political intolerance, discrimination, exclusion and economic deprivation. To silence the guns, Africa needs inclusive governance and sustainable development for all.
Crucially, Silencing the Guns must also apply to soldiers who shoot and kill innocent civilians exercising their democratic right to demonstrate against their governments.
We have seen what happened in Tanzania. With prospects of turbulent elections in Uganda next year and Kenya in 2027, Silencing the Guns will be sorely tested.
This op-ed appears in the November–December 2025 edition of Africa Briefing Magazine.
