DIPLOMATIC relations between South Africa and Rwanda have deteriorated further after South African President Cyril Ramaphosa accused Rwanda-backed M23 rebels of killing South African peacekeepers in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DR Congo). The accusations have triggered a war of words between Ramaphosa and Rwandan President Paul Kagame, deepening long-standing tensions between the two nations.
According to a report by the BBC, Ramaphosa warned that further attacks on South African troops would be seen as a ‘declaration of war.’ Kagame, in response, dismissed South Africa’s stance, accusing its forces of engaging in ‘offensive combat operations’ in DR Congo alongside Congolese troops.
The dispute erupted as the M23 rebels, who have been gaining ground in the region, continued their advance towards Goma, the largest city in eastern DR Congo. Since last week, 13 South African soldiers have died in the fighting, adding to the seven who were killed last year.
Long-standing tensions between South Africa and Rwanda
South Africa and Rwanda have had a turbulent diplomatic history. In 2014, South Africa expelled Rwandan diplomats over attacks on exiled Rwandan dissidents in Johannesburg, prompting Rwanda to retaliate by expelling South African envoys. While relations appeared to improve after Ramaphosa visited Rwanda in 2023 for the 30th anniversary of the Rwandan genocide, the latest crisis has reignited tensions.
The South African troops currently stationed in DR Congo were deployed in December 2023 as part of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) mission known as SAMIDRC. The regional force was tasked with stabilising the volatile region and repelling armed groups such as M23.
However, tensions escalated when Ramaphosa, in a post on X (formerly Twitter), blamed the deaths of South African peacekeepers on attacks by both M23 rebels and ‘Rwanda Defence Force (RDF) militia.’ Kagame swiftly rejected these claims, stating that the RDF is a national army, not a militia. He also alleged that Ramaphosa had admitted in private that Congolese forces, rather than M23 rebels, were responsible for the attacks on South African troops.
Geopolitical interests behind the conflict
South Africa’s involvement in DR Congo goes beyond peacekeeping. As the BBC notes, economic interests also play a crucial role. DR Congo, rich in minerals, is a major trading partner for South Africa, which relies on the country’s resources for its industries. Stability in the region is therefore strategically important for Pretoria.
However, analysts suggest that South Africa underestimated the military challenge. Defence expert Thomas Mandrup, speaking to the BBC, pointed out that South Africa deployed its forces despite warnings about a lack of military capability. Unlike in 2013, when South Africa successfully repelled M23 rebels with its powerful Rooivalk attack helicopters, the country’s declining defence budget has left it without the air support needed to counter the latest offensive.
Defence analyst Dean Wingrin added that South African troops are now effectively trapped in DR Congo, with limited reinforcements and air support. ‘They can’t get out, get aircover, or even evacuate the wounded,’ he told the BBC.
What comes next?
Ramaphosa now faces a tough decision: keep South African troops in DR Congo and risk more casualties, or negotiate a withdrawal, which could be seen as a diplomatic failure. Since SAMIDRC was deployed under the SADC framework, the decision to withdraw troops ultimately rests with the regional bloc. Reports suggest that SADC leaders may discuss the issue in an upcoming summit.
For now, the standoff between South Africa and Rwanda threatens to destabilise an already volatile region. As the conflict in DR Congo intensifies, the growing rift between these two African powers raises concerns about the future of regional peacekeeping efforts.
