Keypoints:
- Kagame confirms Rwanda is discussing investment
- East African states offered 30 percent stake
- Lamu refinery targets 700,000 barrels daily
RWANDA has confirmed it is discussing a possible stake in Aliko Dangote’s planned $16bn oil refinery in Kenya, with President Paul Kagame saying his country would welcome the opportunity to participate in the major East African energy project.
The confirmation moves Kigali’s involvement beyond interest previously disclosed by Kenyan officials, although Kagame stressed that discussions remain at an early stage and no final investment commitment or size of Rwanda’s possible holding has been announced.
Kagame confirms investment discussions
Speaking at a press conference in Kigali on August 24, Kagame confirmed that conversations had taken place over Rwanda’s participation in the refinery.
‘Rwanda would be very happy to be part of that kind of investment,’ Kagame said, according to Rwanda’s The New Times newspaper, while describing the discussions as still being a work in progress.
The remarks provide the first direct presidential confirmation of Rwanda’s interest after Kenyan presidential economic adviser David Ndii said Kigali and Addis Ababa were among governments considering participation.
Ndii told the Mwango Capital Markets Forum on August 20 that East African governments had been offered a combined 30 percent interest in the planned refinery, with Kenya considering a 10 percent holding valued at roughly $500m.
Financing figures begin to align
The proposed investment figures broadly fit the financing model Dangote has outlined for the project.
Dangote has said about 30 percent of the estimated $16bn development would be financed through equity, with the remaining 70 percent funded through debt. That would imply equity financing of roughly $4.8bn.
A 30 percent regional share of that equity would represent about $1.44bn, close to Ndii’s estimate of roughly $1.5bn in possible investment by East African governments.
Similarly, a 10 percent Kenyan share of the equity component would amount to about $480m, broadly consistent with the approximately $500m figure cited by Ndii.
The numbers remain indicative until Dangote Group and participating governments disclose a final shareholder and financing structure.
Lamu refinery plans advance
Dangote has selected Lamu on Kenya’s coast for the proposed refinery, which is expected to process about 700,000 barrels of crude oil a day.
The industrialist has revised the estimated project cost from about $17bn to around $16bn, with financing expected to combine equity and significant debt funding.
The development marks a significant advance from earlier negotiations covered by Africa Briefing on Kenya’s bid for the Dangote refinery, when Mombasa was still being discussed as a possible location.
Rwanda strengthens fuel strategy
For landlocked Rwanda, participation could deepen a broader strategy aimed at securing and diversifying petroleum supply routes.
On June 29, Rwanda and Kenya signed agreements allowing Kigali to source bulk refined petroleum products independently while using Kenya’s petroleum infrastructure for transportation and storage through the Northern Corridor.
An equity position in the Lamu refinery could therefore give Rwanda a strategic interest in regional fuel production as well as transport and storage.
The project is also emerging alongside competing East African energy investments, including the proposed $20bn Uganda-Tanzania Tanga energy hub.
Groundbreaking could begin soon
Ndii has suggested groundbreaking could begin as early as September 2026, while Dangote has indicated construction could start by October, meaning the timetable remains a target rather than a fixed date.
If Rwanda, Kenya and other regional governments ultimately acquire stakes, the refinery could evolve from a Kenyan industrial investment into a significant shared East African energy asset.
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