RUSSIAN Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has declared that the activities of the Wagner Group in Mali and the Central African Republic will persist, despite the recent failed rebellion led by Yevgeny Prigozhin against President Vladimir Putin. The paramilitary organisation, considered Russia’s armed foreign policy apparatus by Western governments, has extended its influence across Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa in recent years. The mutiny led by Prigozhin has raised uncertainties about the future of Wagner’s overseas operations.
Lavrov expressed confidence in the group’s prospects in the region, stating, ‘At their request, several hundred servicemen are working in the CAR as instructors—this work, of course, will continue… Both the CAR and Mali appealed to the Wagner PMCs [Private Military Contractors] with a request to ensure the safety of their leadership.’ He emphasised that the recent events in Russia would not impact its relations with ‘partners and friends.’
France, which has faced disinformation and cyber warfare from Wagner in the Sahel region, is closely monitoring the situation. France’s Foreign Affairs Minister Catherine Colonna acknowledged the need for attention and vigilance regarding the situation in Africa, while stating that it was too early to draw conclusions about the impact of Wagner’s revolt in Russia.
Wagner’s presence in Africa involves a combination of state and non-state actors. Fidèle Gouandjika, a minister and special adviser to CAR President Faustin-Archange Touadéra, clarified that his country had signed a defence deal with Russia, not specifically with Wagner. Gouandjika stated, ‘Moscow has subcontracted to Wagner, and if Russia doesn’t agree, it will send us a new contingent.’
The future of Wagner’s activities remains uncertain. Maxime Audinet, a research fellow specialising in Russian politics, noted that the recent events are likely to cause a fracture in Russia’s presence in Africa, which has relied on both state and non-state actors. Financial disputes and potential absorption of mercenaries into the regular Russian army further complicate the situation. Benjamin Haddad, a French MP, said the failed rebellion serves as a warning to African leaders who employ such mercenaries, highlighting the potential loss of sovereignty and increased volatility.
‘The lesson learned here is that the instability that Wagner is seeking to export, backfires on its own regime,’ said Haddad. ‘Nations who call on their services, lose a part of their sovereignty, [and] we may be entering a period of volatility,’ he added.
