Keypoints:
- Addis Ababa accuses Eritrea and TPLF of collusion
- Sea-access dispute revives old enmity
- Horn of Africa stability again at risk
ETHIOPIA’S latest accusation that Eritrea has joined forces with the outlawed Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) marks a sharp escalation in a region long haunted by mistrust and unfinished conflicts. The claim — contained in a letter from Ethiopia’s foreign ministry to United Nations Secretary General António Guterres, and seen by AFP — alleges that Eritrea and the TPLF are ‘actively preparing to wage war’ against Addis Ababa.
The Ethiopian government further accuses Asmara and remnants of the TPLF of financing and directing armed groups in the Amhara region, where federal troops have been battling local insurgents for several years. Both Eritrea’s Information Minister Yemane Ghebremeskel and the TPLF have declined to comment on the allegations.
This resurgence of hostility between two uneasy neighbours comes amid a broader regional realignment in the Horn of Africa — and revives memories of a violent past that never fully faded.
From independence to enmity
When Eritrea gained independence from Ethiopia in 1993 after a gruelling 30-year liberation struggle, hopes were high for peaceful coexistence. Those hopes soon collapsed. A border dispute over the town of Badme erupted into a full-scale war between 1998 and 2000, claiming tens of thousands of lives and devastating both economies.
A fragile peace agreement signed in Algiers in 2000 halted open warfare but froze relations for nearly two decades. Then, in 2018, a remarkable thaw followed the rise of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. His outreach to President Isaias Afwerki brought the two countries back from the brink, culminating in a peace accord that earned Abiy the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019.
The optimism proved short-lived. When the Tigray war erupted in 2020, Eritrean forces fought alongside Ethiopian federal troops against the TPLF, the group that had dominated Ethiopian politics for nearly three decades. The conflict was catastrophic — with the African Union estimating as many as 600,000 deaths — and left a legacy of suspicion and trauma across the north.
Sea access and shifting alliances
Since the 2022 cessation of hostilities, relations between Abiy and Afwerki have cooled sharply. A central flashpoint has been Ethiopia’s renewed campaign for sea access — a strategic ambition Abiy defends as vital for national security and economic survival. Landlocked since Eritrea’s independence, Ethiopia’s lack of a port has long been seen as a national vulnerability.
Asmara, however, views Addis Ababa’s rhetoric as expansionist. In his letter to the UN, Ethiopian Foreign Minister Gedion Timothewos claimed Eritrea is using this issue ‘to justify its sinister machinations’ against Ethiopia.
Analysts warn that tension over Red Sea access could reignite wider instability. Eritrea has been accused by Western observers, including US-based watchdog The Sentry, of rebuilding its army and destabilising neighbouring states — charges Asmara denies. Ghebremeskel, Eritrea’s information minister, instead blamed Ethiopia for ‘the new tension in the region’.
Regional tremors in the Horn
The re-emergence of Ethiopia–Eritrea hostility reverberates beyond their shared border. Eritrea has recently strengthened ties with Egypt — a country also at odds with Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Nile. This alignment between Cairo and Asmara could further isolate Addis Ababa amid domestic unrest and economic strain.
For now, Ethiopia maintains that it seeks ‘good-faith negotiations’ with Eritrea. Yet the language of accusation — and the ghosts of past wars — suggest that the fragile peace in the Horn of Africa remains perilously thin.
