Keypoints:
- Copper prices have surged nearly 50 percent since January 2025
- Zambia and DR Congo dominate Africa’s copper production
- How governments manage the windfall will define long-term impact
RECORD copper prices are reshaping the economic outlook for Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo, offering both countries a rare window to strengthen public finances and reassert their importance in a rapidly shifting global economy.
Copper prices have jumped almost 50 percent since the start of 2025, breaking through $13,000 a ton for the first time on record. For Africa’s two largest producers, the rally is translating directly into stronger export earnings and rising government revenues, at a time when many emerging markets remain under fiscal strain.
Copper accounts for the bulk of merchandise exports in both countries and underpins a significant share of budget income, making the price surge unusually consequential.
US tariffs fears tighten global supply
The latest surge has been accelerated by concerns that US President Donald Trump’s administration may introduce tariffs on refined copper, a key input for electrical wiring, power grids and industrial equipment.
Those fears have triggered a rush to ship copper into the United States ahead of any potential trade restrictions. As a result, the US now holds roughly half of global copper inventories, according to Swiss bank UBS, fundamentally changing market dynamics.
‘Inventories used to act as a buffer, but now they’re locked in the US,’ Li Xuezhi, head of research at Chaos Ternary Futures, told Bloomberg. ‘So the buffer is gone and everyone will have to scramble.’
With stockpiles concentrated in one market, supply shocks elsewhere are feeding rapidly into prices, reinforcing expectations that the rally could persist longer than previous cycles.
Central Africa’s copper engine
DR Congo’s rise has been dramatic. Copper production has tripled over the past decade following a wave of foreign investment, lifting the country to become the world’s second-largest supplier after Chile.
Zambia is now seeking to replicate — and potentially surpass — that trajectory. Authorities have set a target of more than tripling copper output by the early 2030s, banking on expanded mining, improved infrastructure and greater local processing to anchor long-term growth.
Traders remain bullish on copper’s outlook, pointing to accelerating demand from renewable energy, electric vehicles, data centres and grid expansion. At the same time, global supply remains constrained by years of underinvestment in new mines and persistent disruptions at existing operations.
Markets respond to copper momentum
Financial markets have already rewarded the improved outlook. DR Congo’s franc gained almost 28 percent against the dollar last year, while Zambia’s kwacha advanced about 26 percent. Yields on Zambia’s dollar-denominated bonds have fallen to record lows, reflecting renewed investor confidence.
The gains underscore copper’s outsized influence on macroeconomic stability in both countries.
Turning windfalls into development
The central challenge now facing Lusaka and Kinshasa is how effectively higher copper revenues are deployed. Economists warn that without careful fiscal management, infrastructure investment and transparency, commodity windfalls can entrench volatility rather than reduce it.
As the global economy reorders around energy transition and strategic minerals, Zambia and DR Congo find themselves holding one of the world’s most critical resources. Whether record copper prices translate into lasting development gains will depend less on markets — and more on policy choices at home.
