Keypoints:
- Criminal markets expanding across Africa
- State collusion drives illicit growth
- Resilience weakens in most countries
ORGANISED crime is tightening its grip across Africa, with fresh data revealing widening illicit markets, entrenched state collusion and falling resilience in almost every region. These conclusions come from the 2025 Africa Organised Crime Index, released on November 17 by the ENACT project — a partnership led by the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), Interpol and the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime (GI-TOC).
The report, attributed to ENACT, is the final edition in a four-part series drawing on eight years of data and the expertise of more than 160 analysts. Its authors say the latest findings present the most comprehensive picture yet of organised crime’s evolution on the continent.
GI-TOC Executive Director Mark Shaw said the project had created ‘an unprecedented overview of illicit economies across the continent’, adding that the methodology had since informed the Global Organised Crime Index. ENACT Programme Head at the ISS, Eric Pelser, said the partnership had helped shape policy across Africa by ensuring evidence reached decision-makers: ‘We’ve taken recommendations from the Africa Index to the highest levels of policy-making.’
Illicit markets expand and diversify
According to the 2025 Index, criminal markets and actors have grown steadily since 2019, reaching their highest levels to date.
The most pervasive illicit markets in 2025 include financial crimes, human trafficking, non-renewable resource crimes, counterfeit goods and arms trafficking. Financial crimes and counterfeit goods are the fastest-growing sectors since 2023.
Across Africa, patterns vary significantly:
- East Africa records high levels of human trafficking, arms trafficking and human smuggling.
- North Africa ranks first globally for the cannabis trade and second for financial crimes.
- Central Africa remains heavily shaped by non-renewable resource exploitation.
- West Africa is dominated by the cocaine trade.
- Southern Africa reports widespread wildlife crime.
A critical finding is the extent of official involvement. State-embedded actors remain the most influential criminal groups, with their presence classified as ‘severe’ in almost half of African states.
Foreign groups and cybercrime on the rise
Foreign criminal networks are expanding their reach, particularly in West Africa, where their influence is deemed ‘significant to severe’ in all but one country. This is driven by transnational cocaine flows and the activities of private military companies linked to illicit trade.
Africa’s rapid digitalisation is also fuelling new criminal frontiers. The report highlights surging levels of online financial fraud, cyber-scams and ransomware, particularly in Nigeria, Kenya and South Africa. Four out of Africa’s five subregions now report rising cyber-dependent crime.
Conflict and weak governance weaken resilience
The 2025 Index underscores a strong connection between instability and criminality. Countries grappling with conflict, insurgency or violent extremism consistently score among the highest for illicit activity. ENACT identifies a 0.59 correlation between criminality and the Fragile States Index, reinforcing the need to integrate anti-crime approaches into peacebuilding.
Crucially, resilience is sliding. More than 92 percent of African countries now show low resilience, with 23 simultaneously facing high criminality — a combination the researchers describe as exceptionally dangerous.
Governance plays a decisive role: the Index shows a strong 0.81 correlation between resilience and the Democracy Index. While democracies remain vulnerable to organised crime, they tend to mount stronger institutional responses. Authoritarian states often either enable illicit networks or rely on violent repression.
Civil society organisations — identified as essential drivers of resilience — have suffered the steepest decline across all indicators since 2021.
Geopolitical shifts intensify vulnerabilities
Geopolitical realignment is also shaping illicit markets. The withdrawal or expulsion of some foreign powers has created power vacuums that both licit and illicit actors have moved to fill, contributing to instability and the expansion of criminal economies.
Data to guide action
Despite the darkening trends, Shaw stressed the value of the Index for designing targeted interventions. ‘The data, analysis and recommendations in this report can guide policymakers, researchers and civil society in developing targeted interventions to combat organised crime and strengthen resilience across the continent,’ he said.
