Keypoints:
- Recent US data shows African exports rising despite tariff fears
- Global trade diversion may benefit selected African industries
- AfCFTA offers Africa a more stable long-term trade framework
THE announcement of sharply higher tariffs on US imports in April 2025 triggered a wave of anxiety among policymakers, manufacturers and exporters around the world. Nowhere was that concern more acute than in Africa, where fears quickly emerged that the new trade measures could deal a serious blow to already fragile export sectors.
Those anxieties were reinforced by the widespread perception that the United States remains one of Africa’s most important export markets. Several recent studies warned that the tariff announcements could lead to a substantial contraction in African exports, with particularly severe consequences for the continent’s clothing industry.
But are those fears justified?
A closer examination of recent US import data suggests that the picture is far more nuanced — and considerably less alarming — than many initially assumed.
Exports rise despite tariff fears
Contrary to early predictions, African exports to the United States have so far shown notable resilience in 2025.
In Eastern Africa, exports to the US have broadly recovered to their 2024 levels. Kenya, one of the region’s leading apparel exporters, recorded a 22 percent increase in shipments between April and July 2025 compared with the same period a year earlier, reaching a three-year high.
Even more striking is the performance of Ethiopia. Despite having been suspended from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) in 2022, Ethiopian exports to the US rose by 95 percent year-on-year over the same period.
Elsewhere, outcomes have been mixed. South Africa, facing a 30 percent tariff rate, has seen a decline in exports to the US. Yet even here the impact has been uneven. While automobile exports weakened, agricultural shipments surged by 26 percent in the second quarter of 2025.
Across the continent as a whole, US imports from Africa increased by 6.5 percent year-on-year between April and July, and rose by nearly 24 percent for the January–July period.
These figures contrast sharply with predictions of an immediate export collapse.
Why the feared shock has not arrived
Timing has played an important role.
Although tariffs were announced in April, they were not implemented until August. In the intervening months, exporters continued to ship goods under existing trade conditions. For the 32 sub-Saharan African countries eligible for AGOA, duty-free access remained in place until the scheme expired on September 30, 2025.
This delay created a temporary buffer that softened the immediate impact of the policy shift.
It is also possible that some of the increase in exports reflects precautionary behaviour by American importers. Faced with uncertainty, many firms may have accelerated purchases in order to stockpile inventories before tariffs took effect.
At the same time, delays in the release of US trade statistics — partly caused by the federal government shutdown — obscure a full picture of developments later in the year.
For these reasons, it would be premature to conclude that Africa is immune from the consequences of the new tariffs. Some negative effects may yet emerge.
However, there are growing indications that deeper structural forces are reshaping global trade flows.
A dramatic reordering of global trade
The US tariff measures have not been confined to Africa. They have affected virtually all major trading partners — and in many cases far more severely.
At the height of trade tensions between Washington and Beijing, tariffs on Chinese imports exceeded 140 percent before later negotiations reduced them to a trade-weighted average of roughly 36 percent. The impact has been substantial: Chinese exports to the US were more than 25 percent lower in October 2025 than a year earlier.
Bangladesh and Vietnam — two of the world’s largest garment exporters — have also faced steep tariff increases. Along with China, the three countries supply roughly $45 bn worth of clothing to the US market each year, accounting for about half of total imports.
For large American retailers, this has created an urgent need to diversify sourcing.
In such an environment, relative competitiveness matters more than absolute preference. While African exporters face tariffs, those imposed on rival suppliers are often significantly higher.
Paradoxically, this has the potential to improve Africa’s position within certain global supply chains.
Manufacturing opportunities amid trade diversion
The clothing sector illustrates this dynamic particularly clearly.
African apparel producers have historically struggled to compete with Asian manufacturers on cost and scale. Yet when tariffs sharply increase the price of Asian imports, even smaller African suppliers can become commercially attractive alternatives.
This does not imply an industrial boom is imminent. Infrastructure constraints, logistics costs and skills gaps remain significant challenges. But trade diversion effects may nevertheless generate incremental export opportunities for countries that have already invested in light manufacturing capacity.
In this sense, the tariff shock may be reshaping global supply chains in ways that create limited — but meaningful — openings for African producers.
Why commodities still dominate
Another reason Africa has been less exposed than feared lies in the structure of its exports.
Despite AGOA having existed for a quarter of a century, Africa’s dependence on the US market has steadily declined. The share of African exports destined for the United States peaked at 19 percent in 2007 and has since fallen to roughly 5 percent.
Moreover, export growth has remained heavily concentrated in raw materials. Approximately 70 percent of US imports from Africa still consist of commodities, particularly minerals.
This composition has become strategically significant.
As China tightens restrictions on rare earth exports, US dependence on alternative sources has grown — and Africa holds many of the world’s most critical mineral reserves.
The Democratic Republic of the Congo has emerged as the clearest beneficiary. Since April 2025, its mineral exports to the US have surged dramatically, reflecting rising demand for cobalt, copper and other inputs vital to clean energy technologies and defence supply chains.
Further evidence of this shift can be seen in private investment. US-based Energy Fuels has announced plans to invest more than $700 million in developing rare earth deposits in south-west Madagascar, signalling long-term American interest in African mineral supply.
Adjustment costs remain real
None of this analysis should obscure the genuine challenges facing some African economies.
Countries such as South Africa and Lesotho have built export industries around preferential access to the US market. For them, the expiration of AGOA and the introduction of tariffs represent meaningful adjustment shocks that will require time, policy support and investment to absorb.
More broadly, the unpredictability of US trade policy should serve as a warning. Preferential access can be revised or withdrawn with little notice, as past AGOA suspensions have demonstrated.
Such uncertainty discourages long-term investment decisions. Few firms are willing to commit capital based solely on market access conditions that may change abruptly.
Lessons from Europe’s experience
The same vulnerability applies to other trading partners.
Despite decades of preferential arrangements under the Lomé Convention and its successors, the European Union has frequently constrained African exports through non-tariff barriers, including stringent phytosanitary standards and restrictive rules of origin.
More recently, new EU regulations linked to carbon emissions and deforestation have further complicated access.
As a result, Europe’s importance as an export destination has steadily declined. In Eastern Africa, the EU now accounts for less than 10 percent of exports, compared with roughly one-third three decades ago.
Why Africa’s trade future lies at home
These developments point to a clear strategic conclusion.
Africa’s long-term trade resilience cannot depend on external preferences, whether from the US or the EU. Such arrangements are inherently unstable and shaped by political cycles beyond the continent’s control.
Instead, the African Continental Free Trade Area offers a more predictable and binding framework for growth. Intra-African trade is already the continent’s fastest-growing export market.
By deepening regional integration, African countries can expand markets, develop value chains, support industrialisation and reduce vulnerability to external shocks.
External markets will continue to offer opportunities. But Africa’s trade future will be determined primarily by decisions taken closer to home.
In that context, while US tariffs may have sparked alarm, they may also reinforce a long-overdue strategic shift — one that places Africa’s economic destiny firmly in African hands.
Andrew Mold is the Director, Sub-Regional Office for Eastern Africa – United Nations Economic Commission for Africa
This op-ed first appeared in the US think thank Brookings’ Foresight Africa 2026
