Keypoints:
- CEPA could deepen Kenya-UAE commercial ties
- SMEs must benefit from implementation
- Services and technology offer new opportunities
FOR a Kenyan farmer growing avocados in Murang’a, a flower exporter in Naivasha, a technology entrepreneur in Nairobi or a logistics company moving goods through Mombasa, international trade can sometimes feel like something decided in distant boardrooms.
But trade agreements are ultimately about people.
They determine how easily a farmer can find a buyer, how quickly a shipment can cross a border, whether a small business can reach a new market and whether an investor has enough confidence to put money into a factory, warehouse, data centre or renewable-energy project.
That is what makes the Kenya–United Arab Emirates Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement particularly significant.
Witnessed by Kenyan President William Ruto and UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the agreement was signed in Abu Dhabi on January 14, 2025, by Kenya’s Prime Cabinet Secretary and Foreign Affairs Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and UAE Minister of State for Foreign Trade Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi.
It was the first CEPA formally signed by the UAE with a mainland African country.
But its importance should not be measured simply by diplomatic ceremony. The agreement represents an effort to create a more substantial economic corridor between East Africa and the Gulf.
Its ultimate success will depend on whether it expands productive investment, opens new markets for Kenyan businesses and generates opportunities extending beyond governments and large corporations.
From trade volumes to greater value
The commercial relationship between Kenya and the UAE was already substantial before CEPA.
According to figures published by Kenya’s Presidency, some of the country’s leading exports to the UAE are agricultural products.
Kenya exported KSh9.9bn worth of meat and meat products to the UAE in 2023, representing more than half of its total meat exports of KSh18.3bn.
Fruit exports, led by pineapples, avocados and mangoes, were worth another KSh5.2bn, while vegetables and flowers generated KSh5.6bn.
In the other direction, the UAE supplies Kenya with petroleum, machinery, chemicals and other essential goods.
CEPA’s larger opportunity, therefore, is not simply to increase the amount of trade between the two economies. It is to improve the quality and diversity of that trade.
Kenya’s exports remain heavily dependent on agricultural commodities such as tea, cut flowers and coffee. A deeper commercial relationship with the UAE could help the country move further into processing, logistics, services, technology and other higher-value activities.
The CEPA establishes a framework for reducing trade barriers, simplifying customs procedures and expanding commercial cooperation.
Importantly, however, it should not be interpreted as immediately eliminating tariffs across most Kenya-UAE trade. Market-access and tariff-liberalisation negotiations on goods are expected to be pursued within the wider East African Community framework.
That distinction matters.
The agreement nevertheless extends well beyond merchandise trade. It covers areas including services, digital trade, technological innovation, investment and sustainability.
For Kenyan businesses, this could create opportunities in sectors including education, transport, communications, construction and engineering.
For UAE investors, Kenya presents opportunities across energy, water, agriculture, healthcare, ports, airports, logistics, human-resource development and ICT.
That is particularly significant because Kenya needs investment that expands productive capacity rather than merely financing consumption.
Agriculture offers an early opportunity
Agriculture is perhaps the most obvious area in which ordinary Kenyans could eventually feel the impact of deeper economic ties.
The sector contributes roughly a quarter of Kenya’s economy and directly or indirectly supports millions of livelihoods.
Better trade facilitation and stronger commercial links with the UAE could provide Kenyan livestock producers, horticultural farmers and exporters of fruit, vegetables and flowers with more reliable access to Gulf markets.
But market access alone will not be sufficient.
Kenyan producers must be able to meet demanding standards, maintain dependable supply chains and gain access to storage, processing and transport infrastructure.
This is where investment could become as important as trade.
Joint ventures in cold storage, food processing, warehousing and direct sourcing could enable Kenya to capture more value from what it produces rather than continuing to export large quantities of raw or lightly processed agricultural products.
For Middle Eastern investors concerned about long-term food security, Kenya also presents an opportunity to build deeper relationships with one of East Africa’s most important agricultural economies.
The potential, however, will depend heavily on implementation and on whether smaller producers can participate effectively.
Kenya and the UAE as gateways
The benefits of the partnership need not flow in only one direction.
The UAE is a global trading, logistics and financial hub whose businesses bring capital, technology, infrastructure expertise and connections to markets across the Middle East, Asia and beyond.
Kenya offers something different but equally valuable: a strategic position in East Africa and access to one of the continent’s most important regional markets.
For UAE businesses, Kenya can therefore become more than an investment destination. It could serve as a platform for regional expansion.
Likewise, the UAE is more than a buyer of Kenyan products.
Its ports, airports, financial institutions and trading networks can provide Kenyan companies with connections to markets across the Gulf and Asia.
DP World has also become involved in Kenya’s trade digitalisation, rolling out a Port Community System in Mombasa with the Kenya Ports Authority and the government.
That involvement should not be confused with operating the Port of Mombasa, but it illustrates how logistics technology and trade infrastructure could become part of a wider Kenya-UAE commercial relationship.
The complementarity is particularly visible in areas such as food security, logistics, technology, healthcare, financial services and clean energy.
The Gulf’s geography makes dependable food-import networks strategically important. Kenya, with its agricultural base and growing food-processing capacity, could become part of that supply system.
At the same time, UAE logistics and trading networks could help Kenyan businesses reach customers far beyond their traditional export markets.
The partnership becomes substantially more valuable when both economies move beyond a conventional buyer-and-seller relationship.
Talent can become an export
Kenya should also resist viewing the CEPA primarily through the lens of agriculture and physical goods.
Nairobi has emerged as an important African centre for technology, finance, communications, professional services and innovation.
A Kenyan engineer, architect, consultant, software developer or logistics specialist does not need to place a container on a ship to participate in international trade.
The product may instead be software, financial expertise, engineering knowledge or a professional service.
The CEPA provides a framework that could expand opportunities for Kenyan service providers in areas including education, transport, communications, construction and engineering. Its provisions on digital trade and technological innovation could become particularly significant.
Africa’s next export expansion will not necessarily be built entirely around commodities.
An increasing share of value could come from knowledge, skills and technology.
Kenyan developers can serve customers in Dubai. Engineering companies can participate in infrastructure projects. Digital businesses can reach Gulf markets. Professional-services firms can form partnerships with Emirati companies.
This represents a different kind of trade — one in which talent itself becomes an export.
For Kenya, that creates an opportunity to diversify the economy while supporting higher-value employment.
For the UAE, investment in Kenya’s productive sectors could generate commercial opportunities while strengthening an economic corridor into East Africa.
SMEs must share the gains
There is, however, one crucial test.
A partnership of this scale cannot be regarded as successful if its benefits remain concentrated among governments and large corporations.
The small Kenyan exporter must be able to use it.
The young technology company must understand what opportunities exist.
Farmers and producers need help meeting the standards demanded by new markets.
UAE-based investors must also be able to identify credible Kenyan partners without navigating unnecessary bureaucracy.
Implementation will therefore matter as much as the agreement itself.
Kenya’s trade authorities have positioned CEPA as part of the country’s wider strategy to expand exports and integrate businesses more deeply into regional and global value chains.
The next phase should consequently place considerable emphasis on practical support.
Businesses need accessible information about what the agreement can offer. Compliance requirements must be understandable. Standards and certification systems need strengthening. Exporters require better market intelligence, while SMEs need practical connections with buyers, financiers and potential investors.
An agreement is only as useful as the businesses that know how to use it.
That is especially important because smaller companies rarely possess the legal, financial and administrative resources available to multinational corporations.
Without deliberate efforts to bring SMEs into the system, some of the businesses that could benefit most may struggle to participate.
Success must reach beyond statistics
There is a tendency to measure international economic partnerships in billions of dollars.
Those numbers matter.
But they do not tell the whole story.
A more meaningful measure is whether a Kenyan farmer earns more from a crop; whether a young graduate finds work in a new export-oriented company; whether a Kenyan technology business gains customers in the Gulf; whether a UAE investor establishes a productive long-term partnership in Kenya; and whether businesses on both sides reach markets that were previously difficult to access.
That is the real promise of the Kenya–UAE CEPA.
Once fully in force and implemented, it could give Kenya another avenue for attracting investment, diversifying exports, expanding services, strengthening regional value chains and building deeper economic connections with the Gulf and other global markets.
For the UAE, it could provide stronger access to an important African economy while opening opportunities across investment, logistics, food security, technology, energy and services.
For both countries, the prize is potentially far greater than a larger bilateral trade figure.
It is the possibility of building an economic relationship in which each country’s strengths make the other more competitive.
The real success of CEPA will not be measured by another communiqué or signing ceremony.
It will be measured years from now by the factory that was built, the export company that expanded, the technology that crossed borders, the farmer who gained a new customer and the young person who found a job because two economies discovered greater value in working together.
That is when a trade agreement stops being merely a document.
It becomes an economic relationship that people can actually feel.
Zachary Ochieng is a Global Communications Strategist and former Business and Technology Editor.
