THE Lake Chad Basin is so culturally intertwined that all hands must be on deck at the same time. This is the only answer to a jihadist end game in the region, writes David Otto*.
We are faced with an unprecedented war against Covid-19 – a virus that emerged in late 2019 from the Chinese city of Wuhan in Hubei province – someone got infected in the famous Huanan seafood market after apparently feeding on some animal. Globally Covid-19 has killed more than 80,000 people within a couple of months (at the time of writing this article). It is still not known how and when scientists working round the clock will eventually find a vaccine for this deadly virus.
Covid-19 is nothing like a Third World War (WW3) as various analysts have argued. First, the virus cannot be defeated using any sophisticated conventional weapon. Unlike Ebola, there is no agreed scientific consensus on exactly how Covid-19 is transmitted from one host to another. Crucially, the global impact on the world economy and social interaction and behaviour changes is the first of its kind witnessed in modern times.
A distraction from the war on terror
Covid-19 is the Real First World War (WW1). Each nation is directly and indirectly affected by this invincible, indiscriminate and deadly coronavirus. Difficult economic and social choices are implemented by both powerful and weak nations alike to fight the spread of the disease, forcing other existential security and terror-related threats to take a backseat on the global agenda for the first time since the 9/11 New York Twin Tower attacks by Al-Qaeda – at least until such a time when a vaccine and perhaps treatment is approved.
Right now, Covid-19 is spreading throughout Europe, Asia, America and Africa at break-neck speed. Compassionate calls by UN Secretary-General Antonio Gutteres for immediate ‘Silence of the Guns’ has fallen on deaf ears amongst global Al-Qaeda and ISIS-linked Jihadists. To add insult to injury, the ISIS core has linked the virus outbreak to God’s punishment to all infidels.
The Lake Chad Basin – Boko Haram ISWAP
In the Lake Chad Basin, jihadists linked to Boko Haram and ISIS affiliates – known locally as Islamic State of West Africa Province (ISWAP) – have intensified attacks against military targets in the region since the end of 2019.
Distracted by the Covid-19 global pandemic, Boko Haram jihadists have seized the vacuum to launch coordinated attacks in the Lake Chad Basin. In early March 2020, jihadists stormed the south-eastern region of Diffa in the Niger Republic, killing about 7 police officers. In Chad, jihadists linked to Boko Haram-ISWAP factions launched a deadly attack on March 23, 2020, in the Lac Province bordering Niger and Nigeria, killing more than 98 Chadian soldiers including senior officers – more than 40 escaped with life-threatening injuries.
In Nigeria, ISWAP insurgents laid a deadly ambush against Nigerian soldiers, killing about 100 soldiers in Gorgi, a village in Borno State in north-east Nigeria. On April 6, 2020 – Cameroon, about 7 people including a village head were killed along the Cameroon –Nigeria border town of Amchide by two Boko Haram suicide bombers.
All Hands on Deck
The Multi-National Joint Task Force (MNJTF) under the leadership of the Lake Chad Basin Commission (LCBC) was created with various regional states sectors as a task force to defeat Boko Haram insurgency activities and limit single state only planned responses against Boko Haram jihadist cells in the region. This is because the Lake Chad Basin is so culturally and geographically intertwined that all hands must be on deck at the same time. This is the only approach to a jihadist end game in the region. Boko Haram/ISWAP groups continue to exploit regional gaps when individual states launch attacks without coordinating with other MNJTF sector states.
At the peak of the Covid-19 pandemic struggle, international ‘war against terror’ partner support for Lake Chad Basin states could be severely impacted as the European Union, UK, US and other global partners divert and reserve much-needed resources to respond and manage Covid-19. Traditional funding from partners in the form of technical and resource assistance for regional counter-terrorism efforts will eventually take a hit.
In addition to the existential jihadist conflicts and other insurgency movements operating in the region, Lake Chad Basin states have very weak medical and health infrastructures which would severely impact on how they manage the Covid-19 pandemic.
This is the time for these regional states to set aside any existing differences and focus on the common enemy – Boko Haram ISWAP jihadists. Together under the umbrella of MNJTF, Lake Chad Basin States should design and implement a robust coordinated military and inter-governmental support strategy to have a much better chance of eliminating Boko Haram and ISWAP affiliates in the region by tactically blocking their ability to manoeuvre through porous regional borders given them the option to retreat, escape, hide, recover and plan further counter-attacks against unsuspecting regional military and civilian targets.
Lake Chad Basin states must engage in regionally coordinated and multifaceted military and civilian efforts aimed at simultaneously uprooting jihadist presence in the region, counter their twisted ideology, suffocate local and external support networks and degrade their ability to plan and launch attacks against hard military and soft civilian populations within and across border states.
To achieve a comprehensive and sustainable victory, each regional state must establish or enhance existing community cohesion activities and trust-building networks with credible local partners together with credible civil society organisations and international partners. These local networks, given the right capacity, security and trust, would gain the skills and resources to direct and engage the most vulnerable groups and ensure that jihadist narratives and tactics do not continue to create gaps needed for winning the hearts and minds of the local population.
No single nation in the Lake Chad Basin can ‘Play God’ against a deeply rooted ISIS and Al-Qaida core and affiliates even when reported internal leadership rivalry amongst jihadist prevents them from establishing a highly centralised and unified movement. Individual state-led battles against jihadist groups will be won and lost from time to time, but only a joint sustainable regional strategy will successfully crush Boko Haram jihadist activities in the region.
The strategic importance for collective regional collaboration – from planning, preparation to force deployment – explains the genesis and rationale behind the creation of the MNJTF– more than ever, the global Covid-19 pandemic and its impact on external support partners should present the need for MNJTF member states to resuscitate, regionally fund, Command, control and place a priority to collectively achieve its most important goal of suffocating all Boko Haram and ISWAP jihadist presence and menace in the Lake Chad region. No one Lake Chad country however powerful and strategic will succeed to crush and defeat Boko Haram ISWAP on their own without a genuine MNJTF civil and military collaboration and coordination.
*David Otto is the Global Risk International (GRI) Director of Anti & Counter-Terrorism programme design and training. David is a world-renowned Counter-Terrorism and Organised Crime Expert. He is a Certified Anti-Terrorism Specialist (CAS), a Certified Master Anti Terrorism Specialist (CMAS) and a programme trainer with the Anti-Terrorism Accreditation Board (ATAB); a Certified Expert in Field Criminalistics from The National University of Penal, Administrative and security Science – Mexico
Email: David@globalrisk.international Twitter : @Ottotgs
