Keypoints:
- APC expected to back Tinubu for re-election
- Rival parties remain divided by defections
- Analysts say united southern ticket could reshape race
NIGERIA’S nearly two dozen political parties are beginning presidential primaries ahead of national elections scheduled for January 2027, with the process already exposing deep fractures within the country’s rival political camps.
The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) is widely expected to nominate incumbent President Bola Tinubu for a second term, reinforcing its position as the country’s most organised political force heading into the campaign season.
Rival camps enter race divided
Nigeria’s challenger parties, by contrast, are struggling with defections, internal disputes and failed coalition efforts that analysts say could strengthen Tinubu’s re-election prospects despite widespread frustration over inflation, currency weakness and economic reforms.
Recent coalition talks aimed at uniting anti-APC forces have repeatedly broken down, highlighting the difficulties rival leaders face in building a credible national alliance. Earlier reporting by Africa Briefing noted that negotiations between major political figures were undermined by competing ambitions and disagreements over leadership structures.
The once-dominant Peoples Democratic Party, which governed Nigeria between 1999 and 2015, has become increasingly weakened by factional battles and leadership disputes. The party is currently embroiled in court cases over internal control and has seen its political influence shrink sharply since the last election cycle.
The Labour Party, which gained momentum during the 2023 election under former presidential candidate Peter Obi, has also struggled to maintain the nationwide energy that propelled its surprise rise three years ago.
Nigeria has meanwhile faced soaring food prices, persistent inflation, a weaker naira and rising living costs since the government removed fuel subsidies and liberalised the currency market shortly after Tinubu took office. Many Nigerians remain frustrated by worsening household pressures despite government assurances that reforms will stabilise the economy over time.
Political tensions within both parties have opened space for newer coalition movements and smaller political platforms to emerge.
New alliances struggle to hold
The African Democratic Congress has in recent months become one of the loudest anti-government voices ahead of the election season, while smaller coalition movements have also attempted to consolidate disaffected voters.
Obi, former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar and former Kano governor Rabiu Kwankwaso initially attempted to build a broad anti-APC alliance under an ADC-led arrangement.
The effort quickly unravelled amid disputes over leadership and strategy.
In recent weeks, Obi and Kwankwaso have moved towards a new political alignment where supporters have rallied around what has been branded the ‘OK’ movement — a reference to the pair’s combined political initials and regional support bases.
Analysts say Obi retains strong backing among younger urban voters and southern reform-minded constituencies, while Kwankwaso remains influential in parts of northern Nigeria through his long-established grassroots networks.
According to Lagos-based geopolitical consultancy SBM Intelligence, Nigeria’s fragmented political landscape continues to favour incumbents unless rival parties succeed in building a broad electoral coalition capable of bridging regional and religious divides.
2023 vote still shapes calculations
The dynamics of the 2023 presidential election continue to shape political calculations ahead of 2027.
Tinubu secured victory with 36.6 percent of the vote, while Abubakar won 29 percent, Obi captured 25 percent and Kwankwaso received just over 6 percent.
Political observers say the fragmented outcome demonstrated how divisions among Tinubu’s challengers benefited the APC, allowing the president to prevail without an outright majority.
The disputed outcome of the last election continues to shape rival messaging. In a previous interview covered by Africa Briefing, Obi maintained that he — not Tinubu — won the 2023 presidential race, reflecting lingering tensions surrounding the vote.
Many analysts believe a repeat scenario remains possible if rival parties fail to unite behind a single viable candidate.
Senior figures within challenger camps have blamed some of their instability on alleged infiltration by the ruling party, although no evidence has emerged publicly to support those accusations.
Regional politics remain central
Nigeria’s electoral politics continue to be shaped heavily by geography, ethnicity and religion.
The country is broadly divided between a largely Muslim north and a predominantly Christian south, with informal power-sharing expectations often influencing elite political negotiations.
Tinubu, a southerner, succeeded former President Muhammadu Buhari after Buhari completed two terms in office representing northern political interests.
Some political actors argue power should remain in southern Nigeria following Buhari’s eight years in office, a factor analysts say could complicate coalition efforts if northern and southern blocs fail to align behind a common candidate.
Others argue economic hardship could outweigh regional loyalties if rival parties build a credible alliance before voting begins. Tinubu’s economic reforms — including subsidy removal and currency liberalisation — are expected to remain central campaign issues, as previously analysed by Africa Briefing.
APC still holds institutional advantage
For now, however, the APC appears to be entering the primary season more unified than its rivals, giving Tinubu an early institutional advantage ahead of one of Africa’s most closely watched elections.
Some analysts believe fragmentation among Tinubu’s challengers may ultimately reinforce the president’s re-election pathway unless a stronger coalition emerges before campaigning intensifies. A recent opinion analysis published by Africa Briefing argued that repeated defections and tactical miscalculations continue to strengthen the APC’s grip on national politics.
Unless rival parties overcome regional rivalries, leadership disputes and organisational fragmentation, analysts say Tinubu could once again benefit from a divided electoral field in Africa’s largest democracy.
Related stories
