Keypoints:
- Government defends royalty cut amid price slump
- IMANI warns weakened terms risk future value
- Parliament faces pressure to secure safeguards
GHANA’S revised Ewoyaa lithium agreement has reignited a fierce national debate, as IMANI Africa, a prominent Ghanaian think tank, urges Parliament to reject the amended terms while government officials defend the move as a pragmatic response to market realities. The dispute centres on the decision to reduce Ghana’s royalty share from 10 percent to the statutory 5 percent, a change critics warn could strip the country of significant long-term value in its most strategic mineral find in decades. The revised lease between the Government of Ghana and Barari DV, a subsidiary of Atlantic Lithium, is expected to return to Parliament for ratification in the coming weeks.
The government has launched an energetic defence of the new framework, but IMANI’s latest assessment—published on its website and reviewed by Africa Briefing—warns MPs that the amendment risks weakening national value capture, industrialisation prospects and fiscal safeguards.
Government cites market collapse and legal limits
Felix Kwakye Ofosu, Minister in charge of Government Communication, argues that the revised terms reflect a sharp downturn in global lithium prices. Appearing on JoyNews’ PM Express earlier this week, he explained: ‘The initial projections were based on market prices that no longer hold. Lithium prices have fallen significantly. The investor cannot raise the funds needed unless the terms reflect this new reality.’
‘The initial projections were based on market prices that no longer hold. Lithium prices have fallen significantly.’
Lithium prices, which once peaked above $2,800 per tonne, slumped below $900 in 2024 before inching upward again. Kwakye Ofosu warned that insisting on the original fiscal terms would make the project financially unviable. ‘To make the project viable, we need to tweak the fiscal terms. We haven’t abandoned Ghana’s interests; we are adjusting to ensure the country actually benefits rather than having a stalled project.’
On the legal front, he said the reduction to a 5 percent royalty simply restores compliance: ‘The law prescribes a 5 percent royalty. The previous government went beyond what the law provides. We are aligning the agreement with the statutory framework.’
IMANI challenges legality and economic logic
IMANI Africa rejects this argument, describing the government’s claims of a legal cap as ‘misleading’. In its statement, the organisation says: ‘Ghana’s royalty share has been reduced, despite strong profitability at current lithium prices.’ It insists the Minerals and Mining Act allows negotiated rates above the baseline for minerals deemed strategic and argues that Ewoyaa easily meets that threshold.
The think tank also warns that fiscal returns could fall sharply if prices rebound without a sliding-scale royalty. ‘Ghana is giving away upside in a strategic mineral critical to the green-energy transition,’ IMANI said.
It further criticises the revised deal for diluting industrialisation commitments, saying clauses that previously supported value addition were ‘softened or removed’. Ambiguity surrounding off-take pricing also remains a major concern. ‘Ambiguity around off-take pricing risks transfer-pricing abuses,’ the think tank cautioned.
IMANI insists the Minerals and Mining Act allows negotiated rates above the baseline for minerals deemed strategic
Communities demand swift approval
While IMANI presses for tougher safeguards, communities near Ewoyaa are pushing for quick approval. Delay has fostered frustration, with expectations for jobs and local development running high. Kwakye Ofosu acknowledged this pressure: ‘I receive representations from the chiefs and people almost every day. They want this project to move. Their local economies have been on hold for too long.’
For many residents, pragmatism trumps perfection. As he put it: ‘A slightly adjusted deal that takes off is better than a perfect deal that never materialises.’
Government insists long-term value is protected
Responding to claims that Ghana is giving away future value, Kwakye Ofosu said some benefits were designed to be phased in. ‘Some of the benefits are transitional. Once the price of lithium picks up again, the commitments will kick in. Nothing has been taken away permanently.’
However, analysts warn that unless the revised lease explicitly contains a variable royalty mechanism, Ghana may lose the chance to recover forgone revenue during future price surges. Institutions such as the Natural Resource Governance Institute recommend royalty frameworks tied to global benchmarks.
Downstream processing still uncertain
Much of the excitement around Ewoyaa stemmed from expectations of local refining and early steps towards battery-chemistry manufacturing. But independent assessments suggest Ewoyaa’s output alone is insufficient to sustain a refinery without additional feedstock or significant subsidies.
Government maintains its ambition. ‘We remain committed to ensuring Ghana benefits from every natural resource we can responsibly exploit. This includes taking full advantage of downstream opportunities,’ said Kwakye Ofosu.
Still, analysts warn that without published feasibility studies or confirmed financing, value-addition remains more aspiration than reality.
Parliament between two competing pressures
As Parliament prepares to revisit ratification, MPs face two competing imperatives: community impatience and long-term national interest. IMANI has urged legislators to reject the deal until it includes ‘a higher or sliding royalty linked to global prices’, binding value-addition timelines, clear protections against profit shifting and full transparency.
‘Ghana must secure a deal that protects citizens’ value… not one that shifts commercial risks to the state while guaranteeing returns for the investor,’ IMANI said.
The confrontation between government officials and policy analysts highlights the stakes: whether Ghana’s first major lithium project becomes a blueprint for green-mineral governance or a compromised opportunity in a fast-moving global market.
