Keypoints:
- Liberia targets up to 30m tonnes of iron ore output
- ArcelorMittal expansion drives production surge
- New mining code introduces state equity stakes
LIBERIA expects its iron ore production to triple this year, marking a major turning point for the country’s mining sector as expansion by ArcelorMittal Liberia and the arrival of new producers reshape output levels and investment prospects.
The West African nation is targeting between 25 million and 30 million metric tonnes of iron ore production, up sharply from roughly 10 million tonnes recorded in 2025, Mines and Energy Minister Matenokay Tingban told Reuters at the Mining Indaba conference in Cape Town.
ArcelorMittal expansion drives growth
The projected surge is largely anchored by ArcelorMittal Liberia, the country’s largest mining operator and historically its dominant iron ore producer.
The Luxembourg-based steelmaker is undertaking a major expansion programme that includes a new ore concentrator and extensive upgrades to rail and port infrastructure designed to handle significantly larger export volumes. The company recently indicated it plans to ship about 20m tonnes of iron ore annually from Liberia beginning in 2026, a sharp rise from historic production levels of around 5m tonnes per year.
‘This year, ArcelorMittal should be hitting 20 million tonnes,’ Tingban said, highlighting the rapid pace of the operational ramp-up.
Central to the expansion is the upgrade of Liberia’s railway system, which is being expanded to accommodate up to 30 million tonnes per year under a long-term agreement that will also generate about $200 million in fees for the Liberian government.
New entrants to lift national output
Beyond ArcelorMittal’s growth, Liberia expects several new mining companies to begin contributing to national production this year.
According to the minister, Cavalla Resources, Westcrest and Zodiac are scheduled to start operations, while Bao Chico is preparing to resume production after a previous shutdown. Combined output from these projects is expected to complement ArcelorMittal’s expansion and push national production toward the 30 million-tonne target.
The expansion comes amid improving global iron ore market conditions. Prices strengthened in 2025 as strong Chinese imports tightened supply in the seaborne market, encouraging renewed investor interest in African mining jurisdictions.
Gold output and critical minerals exploration
Liberia is also anticipating higher gold production as Mansa Resources advances the ramp-up of its Dugbe gold project.
Meanwhile, the government has directed the Liberia Geological Survey to accelerate exploration following Chinese-led geochemical studies that identified potential lithium deposits and other critical minerals. Officials believe these discoveries could position Liberia to benefit from rising global demand linked to energy transition technologies.
Mining law reforms under way
Alongside production growth, Liberia is fast-tracking reforms to its mining legislation aimed at increasing state participation and long-term economic benefits.
Tingban said a revised mining code could be completed within three months, introducing changes to licensing arrangements and establishing a framework for a national mining company capable of taking equity stakes in projects.
Under proposed reforms, the government would receive free-carried equity of between 10 percent and 15 percent in mining ventures, with a longer-term ambition of increasing participation to 25 percent.
‘We are moving from a royalty-only approach to equity participation to maximise returns, fund infrastructure and create jobs,’ the minister said.
Royalty rates are expected to remain unchanged at 4.5 percent for iron ore and 3 percent for gold, while heavy mineral sands would attract an 8 percent royalty. Whether the new equity provisions will apply to existing projects will be determined by Liberia’s Ministry of Justice.
Mining’s economic role set to expand
Authorities believe the combined effect of higher output, new entrants and regulatory reform could significantly increase mining’s contribution to Liberia’s economy.
Tingban said mining output could rise from about 15 percent of economic activity recorded in 2024 to as much as 50 percent, depending on how quickly new producers achieve full operational capacity.
If realised, the expansion would mark one of Liberia’s most significant mining growth phases in decades, strengthening its position as an emerging iron ore supplier in West Africa.
