Keypoints:
- Kagame says coups differ by cause
- Warns leaders ignoring grievances risk unrest
- AU urged to hold governments accountable
RWANDAN President Paul Kagame has argued that not all military takeovers in Africa are alike, describing recent upheavals as falling into categories of ‘good coups’ and ‘bad coups’. Speaking to journalists in Kigali on November 29, shortly after the latest power shift in Guinea-Bissau, Kagame offered a blunt assessment of why coups continue to recur across the continent.
A view shaped by different motivations
Kagame said the intentions behind a coup are central to judging its character. Some takeovers, he noted, begin with what he described as individuals who become ‘high-handed’ and ‘reckless’, assuming that holding a gun entitles them to seize power. These, he said, constitute ‘bad coups’.
However, he contrasted these with situations where citizens or military officers act out of prolonged frustration with their leaders. In those cases, he suggested, the coup may be rooted in genuine political grievances and governance failings, although he cautioned that such actions still do not guarantee positive outcomes.
Kagame did not explicitly classify Guinea-Bissau’s recent coup as either good or bad, saying the situation remained unclear and its long-term implications uncertain.
Guinea-Bissau’s fraught transition
The coup unfolded on November 26 as the country awaited results from a tense presidential vote in which incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embalo sought re-election. Within hours of unrest, army chief General Horta Inta-A announced he was assuming the role of transitional president, adding further instability to a country that has endured multiple political ruptures.
The African Union has since suspended Guinea-Bissau ‘with immediate effect’, citing breaches of its democratic norms.
A pattern across the region
Guinea-Bissau joins Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Gabon, and Madagascar—all of which have witnessed military takeovers since 2020. While circumstances differ from one country to another, the wave reflects deepening frustration over governance, economic stagnation, security failures, and disputes around electoral legitimacy.
Kagame said coups seldom emerge without warning. ‘Once there is a coup, maybe ninety percent, it means that there has been a problem,’ he told reporters, arguing that many governments fail to confront the conditions that encourage such ruptures.
Governance as the underlying issue
While distancing himself from endorsing coups, Kagame warned that they will remain a feature of African politics if leaders neglect the grievances that drive citizens to lose trust in democratic systems. He emphasised that even when a leader is removed, a country’s structural problems often persist unless reforms accompany the change.
His remarks suggested a broader frustration with what he sees as a cycle of poor governance feeding instability across the continent.
Kagame calls for stronger AU action
The Rwandan president urged the African Union to take a firmer stance against elected leaders who manipulate institutions, compromise electoral processes, or erode democratic norms. He argued that the AU tends to react decisively to military coups but hesitates to challenge civilian leaders who fuel the very crises that often precede them.
A long-serving leader reflects on authority
Kagame has led Rwanda since 2000, following his earlier role as vice president after the Rwandan Patriotic Front ended the 1994 genocide and took power. He is now serving his fourth term, having secured ninety-eight percent of the vote in last year’s election.
