Keypoints:
- Israel’s recognition has propelled Somaliland into regional power politics
- Berbera is emerging as a critical military and logistics hub
- Red Sea rivals are recalibrating alliances and access routes
WHEN Israel formally recognised Somaliland last month, it did more than break with decades of diplomatic convention. The decision thrust the unrecognised Horn of Africa territory into the centre of a fast-intensifying contest over ports, airfields and military access along the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, one of the world’s most strategically sensitive maritime corridors.
Somaliland occupies a commanding position near the Bab el-Mandeb strait, a chokepoint linking the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean through which a significant share of global trade and energy supplies passes. Its geography places it adjacent to multiple overlapping conflicts stretching across the Horn of Africa and the Middle East. Israel’s move has therefore been widely interpreted less as an endorsement of Somaliland’s long-standing independence bid and more as a strategic calculation shaped by regional insecurity.
Berbera’s strategic gravity
At the centre of Somaliland’s renewed relevance is Berbera. The deep-water port and adjoining airfield have been steadily transformed since 2016 by the United Arab Emirates, which secured a 25-year concession to develop the facilities. What began as a commercial infrastructure project has evolved into a strategically significant military asset.
A senior Somaliland official, speaking anonymously to AFP, said new buildings and upgraded airbase facilities at Berbera have recently been completed, expanding its capacity to host large naval vessels and military aircraft. Analysts say this marks a clear turning point. Berbera is no longer viewed primarily as a trade gateway into the Horn of Africa, but as a forward operating platform in a region increasingly defined by security competition.
Roland Marchal of France’s National Centre for Scientific Research argues that the emphasis has shifted decisively. Military access, rather than commercial shipping, is now the central prize, reflecting the broader militarisation of Red Sea geopolitics.
Israel, the UAE and Yemen
For Israel, Somaliland offers tangible strategic advantages. Berbera provides proximity to Yemen, where Houthi rebels have targeted Israeli-linked shipping and launched long-range attacks framed as solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza. Operating from Somaliland allows Israel to project power without the political constraints of basing assets directly on Arab soil.
The territory also strengthens the expanding, largely discreet security relationship between Israel and the UAE that followed the Abraham Accords. Abu Dhabi has avoided publicly endorsing Israel’s recognition of Somaliland, but its silence has been notable.
Berbera gives the UAE leverage over one of the world’s busiest maritime corridors, yet formal recognition of Somaliland would risk deepening tensions with Saudi Arabia, whose relations with Abu Dhabi remain strained. Regional analysts suggest Riyadh would see such a move as a challenge to what it considers an Arab consensus on Somalia’s territorial integrity.
Somalia’s federal government has already reacted by cancelling cooperation agreements with the UAE and accusing it of undermining national sovereignty. Despite the diplomatic backlash, few expect the Emiratis to relinquish their foothold in Berbera, which is widely regarded as strategically indispensable.
Turkey and China recalibrate
Israel’s recognition has sharpened regional fault lines. Turkey, a close ally of Somalia, has invested heavily in Mogadishu, hosting its largest overseas military base and backing major infrastructure and energy projects. Ankara views Somalia as central to its Africa strategy.
Turkish analysts warn that any fragmentation of Somalia could jeopardise these interests. Turkey’s opposition to Israel’s war in Gaza and its own sensitivities around separatism further reinforce its support for Somalia’s territorial unity. Yet Ankara’s approach is not entirely inflexible. It has maintained limited engagement with Somaliland while cooperating with the UAE elsewhere, underscoring the transactional nature of Red Sea diplomacy.
China approaches Somaliland from a different angle. Somaliland’s recognition of Taiwan places it firmly at odds with Beijing, which has deepened diplomatic and economic ties with Somalia. While China has avoided overt intervention, its alignment with Mogadishu adds another layer to the competition for influence in the Horn of Africa.
Washington’s careful distance
The United States has responded cautiously. Washington has defended Israel’s right to recognise Somaliland but has shown little appetite to follow suit. President Donald Trump has indicated that recognition is unlikely, despite pressure from some Republican lawmakers.
US officials privately acknowledge the diplomatic costs. Recognising Somaliland would risk alienating Egypt, Turkey and Saudi Arabia simultaneously. From Washington’s perspective, Somaliland is useful but not indispensable. The US already maintains extensive military assets across the region, including naval forces in the Red Sea and Gulf and access to facilities such as the Baledogle airfield in Somalia.
Somaliland’s sidelined case
Amid the manoeuvring, Somaliland’s own record is often overlooked. Since declaring independence in 1991, it has governed itself, held elections and maintained a degree of stability unmatched in much of the Horn of Africa. Yet these achievements have become secondary to its strategic utility.
As Marchal notes, Somaliland’s merits are rarely assessed on their own terms. Its successes and shortcomings are eclipsed by its geography. Israel’s recognition may have broken a diplomatic deadlock, but it has also underscored a harsher reality: Somaliland’s path to wider acceptance will be shaped less by democratic credentials than by how central it remains to an increasingly militarised Red Sea corridor.
What appears to be a diplomatic breakthrough may instead mark the opening phase of a far more consequential geopolitical contest.
