Key points:
- DR Congo offers minerals for US security aid as rebels advance
- Trump’s transactional diplomacy may open doors for a deal
- Analysts warn of high risks and limited short-term solutions
AS M23 rebels tighten their grip on eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Kinshasa is looking for new allies—and all eyes are now on Washington. President Félix Tshisekedi’s government appears to be courting the United States, with hints of a potential strategic minerals deal. But is President Donald Trump really considering such an agreement, and what’s at stake for both nations?
A transactional opportunity?
Tshisekedi’s outreach seems carefully timed. The Trump White House has shown a preference for transactional foreign policy, where deals are made with clear-cut gains for both sides. A recent Ukraine-US minerals agreement has reportedly piqued Kinshasa’s interest. DRC, rich in cobalt, lithium, and tantalum, hopes to offer Washington a compelling alternative to China’s dominance in its mining sector.
Government spokesman Patrick Muyaya didn’t mince words in a BBC interview, hinting at a package deal: critical minerals in exchange for security cooperation. ‘Of course… we can also talk about security,’ he said.
But with fighting intensifying in the east, and M23 rebels threatening to push westward, is there time for diplomacy to bear fruit?
What’s in it for the US?
For Washington, the potential appeal is obvious. DRC boasts an estimated $24 trillion in untapped mineral reserves, including cobalt essential for electric vehicles, defence industries, and renewable energy. Despite significant investments, the US remains on the sidelines of Congolese mining, while China dominates extraction and exports.
A letter from the Africa-USA Business Council recently warned of a ‘strategic gap’ in Africa’s resource control, calling for the US to step up and secure mineral partnerships before rivals gain further ground.
If the Trump administration is listening, DRC could be seen as a timely strategic prize—despite its instability.
Would a deal address Congo’s immediate crisis?
The Congolese government is not just eyeing economic gains; it’s desperate for security guarantees. Reports suggest that Kinshasa may offer US companies mining concessions alongside military cooperation, including training, equipment, and even base access.
But regional analysts are sceptical about what this partnership could realistically deliver. Stephanie Wolters from the South African Institute of International Affairs argues that direct US military involvement is unlikely. ‘Weapons and training are longer-term solutions,’ she explains. ‘The Congolese government faces an acute security crisis in the east. It’s hard to see how US support could address that in time.’
High hopes, but risks remain
There’s also the question of trust. Previous resource-for-infrastructure deals with China sparked widespread criticism over lack of transparency and unmet promises. While President Tshisekedi has renegotiated some agreements, doubts persist.
Jean-Pierre Okenda, a Congolese mining analyst, calls for robust oversight. ‘Parliament and civil society must be involved to ensure any deal serves the public interest,’ he says. Without accountability, he warns, a US deal could repeat past mistakes.
Trump’s next move?
So far, Washington has remained tight-lipped. A US State Department spokesperson says there’s ‘nothing to preview or announce.’ Yet the administration is reportedly open to partnerships that align with its executive order aimed at securing non-fuel mineral supplies.
Adding intrigue to the situation, reports suggest that Massad Boulos—father-in-law to Trump’s daughter Tiffany—is poised to become the White House’s Great Lakes envoy. Boulos has business interests in West Africa and may soon visit Kinshasa, raising speculation about whether he will play a role in potential negotiations.
What happens next?
For now, Kinshasa’s hopes rest on Trump’s willingness to engage. But even if Washington bites, the challenges are formidable. Security in eastern Congo is deteriorating rapidly. Any agreement on minerals and security could take months, if not years, to finalise—time Tshisekedi may not have.
As DR Congo weighs its options, the question remains: is this the start of a high-stakes strategic alliance, or simply diplomatic theatre amid a worsening conflict?
