Keypoints:
- Global demand lifts mining output
- Weather and tariffs disrupt supply
- New projects bolster long-term growth
AFRICA’S status as a global mining powerhouse continues to evolve as rising international demand for critical minerals collides with infrastructure gaps, policy uncertainty and surging operational costs. According to data from the US Geological Survey (USGS), the continent accounts for 79.3 percent of global platinum group metal reserves in 2025, alongside substantial shares of chromium, cobalt, manganese, diamonds and bauxite.
The shift in commodity demand is being amplified by geopolitics. From August 1, the United States has imposed a 50 percent tariff on copper imports, a move that could weaken export competitiveness in producer markets including the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Analysts warn that supply chain diversification will accelerate as governments prioritise energy transition security.
Platinum output dips despite dominant position
Platinum remains central to Africa’s mining landscape, although production is projected to fall by 6.4 percent in 2025 due to heavy rains earlier in the year and ongoing mine restructuring. Despite this, the region will maintain approximately 79.5 percent of global production.
South Africa accounted for 89 percent of regional platinum output in 2024, with Zimbabwe contributing 11 percent. Zimbabwe’s volumes are expected to remain flat before rebounding from 2026, when the Mupan and Karo Platinum projects begin to ramp up. From 2025 to 2030, platinum output across Africa is forecast to grow at a compound annual rate of 1.4 percent to reach 5.12 million ounces. Major operators include Anglo American, Impala Platinum Holdings, Sibanye Stillwater and Northam Platinum.
South Africa targets beneficiation revival
South Africa also dominates chromium production, delivering 42.7 percent of global volumes in 2024. Persistent structural challenges — including high electricity costs, labour inefficiencies and logistical congestion — continue to weigh on margins.
To address this, the government has introduced policies to support domestic beneficiation and revive ferrochrome smelting capacity. The measures are expected to drive a 3.9 percent uplift in chromium output to 20.5 million tonnes in 2025.
DRC expands critical mineral supply
The DRC remains a cornerstone of Africa’s cobalt and copper supply. In 2024, the country accounted for 97.2 percent of regional cobalt production, backed by operators such as CMOC Group, Glencore and Jinchuan Group. Africa’s cobalt output is forecast to rise by 2.5 percent in 2025 to 219.2 kilotonnes, driven by expansion at the Kinsanvere, Mutanda, Kisanfu and Tenke Fungurume mines.
Copper production in the DRC is expected to post a compound annual growth rate of 3.3 percent through 2030. Meanwhile, Africa’s second-largest copper producer is set for a 19.2 percent production increase in 2025 to 937.5 kilotonnes, driven largely by higher output from ZCCM Investment Holdings’ Mopani mine.
Guinea accelerates bauxite growth
In West Africa, Guinea continues to dominate bauxite production, accounting for 98.3 percent of Africa’s total in 2024. Investments in the Bon Ami, AGB2A GIC and Sangarédi mines are projected to lift national output to 160 million tonnes by 2030. The Simandou iron ore megaproject, backed by more than $26bn, aims to produce 39.3 million tonnes by late 2025.
Ghana sustains lead in gold
Ghana remained Africa’s largest gold producer in 2024, contributing 19.5 percent of regional output. Gold production is expected to grow by 4.1 percent this year to 5.2 million ounces, with new volumes from Newmont’s Ahafo South and Shandong’s Namdini mines. GoldStone’s Akrokeri-Homase project is transitioning to a 24-hour schedule and full-year output from Gan He Mining Resources will add further support.
However, declines at Edikan, Damang, Tarkwa and Akyem are expected to temper gains, illustrating the uneven performance of individual assets across the sector.
