Keypoints:
- UAE leads $75bn Gulf push into East Africa’s ports, energy, and security.
- Saudi and Turkish focus deepens rivalry in Djibouti and Sudan.
- Gulf military ties reshape region’s defence and debt landscape.
GULF nations—led by the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Turkey—have poured more than $75bn into East Africa, reshaping the region’s politics, infrastructure, and security. According to a new report by the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, the influx is altering the balance of power across 12 countries, affecting the lives of over 400 million people.
UAE dominates investment and security
The UAE stands as the most influential Gulf player, accounting for around 60 percent of all Gulf investments in the region—an estimated $47bn. Its funds stretch across every East African country, heavily focused on energy ($19.3bn), agriculture ($11.9bn), ports ($7.3bn), and infrastructure ($5.9bn).
Sudan alone has drawn in $22bn of Emirati financing—making up almost 90 percent of total Gulf investment in the country. Key projects include $13bn in South Sudan’s oil sector and $6.6bn for oil and gold refining facilities in Uganda.
The UAE is also deeply embedded in the region’s security architecture. The report notes military cooperation in at least eight East African countries, with arms transfers and strategic port control through its global operator, DP World. Active port deals span Djibouti, Eritrea, Kenya, Somalia, Somaliland, and Tanzania—with Sudan expected to follow.
Saudi Arabia zeroes in on Djibouti
While contributing a smaller portion overall, Saudi Arabia’s $15.6bn investment across 11 East African states remains highly focused—$13bn, or over 80 percent, is funnelled into Djibouti alone.
There, Riyadh is funding a $12.7bn oil refinery at Damerjog, a long-term logistics city, and negotiating a potential military base. These efforts underscore Djibouti’s strategic location at the mouth of the Red Sea, where it already hosts multiple foreign military bases.
Elsewhere, Saudi Arabia’s development and defence activities are minimal, limited primarily to Sudan and Djibouti.
Turkey leverages drones and defence ties
Turkey’s footprint, valued at around $6bn, is focused on infrastructure ($4.5bn), energy, and agriculture, particularly in Tanzania and Ethiopia. But it is Ankara’s security engagement that sets it apart.
Turkey supplies military drones to five East African countries—Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, and Sudan—capturing 65 percent of the UAV export market. It also operates Camp TURKSOM in Somalia, training thousands of national soldiers and embedding itself in regional defence networks.
According to the Africa Center, Turkey is involved in security partnerships in eight of the nine countries where it invests.
Qatar and Kuwait deepen soft power reach
Qatar, investing across eight countries, is notably active in agriculture and infrastructure. In Kenya’s Tana River Delta, it is developing a 40,000-hectare agribusiness zone. Qatar also provides financial and material support to Sudan’s Armed Forces.
Kuwait plays a quieter role, contributing to collective Gulf development in East Africa, though specific project values remain opaque.
Strategic influence, rising risks
The Africa Center’s report underscores that East Africa’s per-capita income is 22 times lower than that of Gulf nations, making it both a strategic partner and a vulnerable target. Nine of the twelve countries examined are in conflict or post-conflict situations, where external military and economic interventions risk exacerbating tensions.
Djibouti, while benefiting the most per capita from Gulf funding, now owes significant portions of its external debt to foreign actors. Similar patterns of dependency are emerging elsewhere.
Sudan, already torn between rival generals, has become a battleground for Gulf rivalries—with the UAE and Saudi Arabia backing opposing factions.
What this means for East Africa
Economic impact: Massive Gulf capital inflows are revamping infrastructure and services. But mounting debts and limited local ownership pose long-term risks.
Security influence: Arms transfers and military cooperation, especially from the UAE and Turkey, boost some regimes but risk fuelling instability.
Geopolitical shift: Gulf states are outcompeting Western donors in East Africa, establishing strongholds in ports, oil, and drone warfare. The region is fast becoming a new axis in Middle Eastern power politics.
