Keypoints:
- Former battlefield enemies form common front
- Alliance seeks transitional government after Abiy
- No joint military command announced
SEVEN Ethiopian opposition organisations and armed movements, including former battlefield enemies from the Tigray war, have formed a new alliance seeking to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government and establish an inclusive transitional administration.
The Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival brings together organisations rooted across some of the country’s most volatile regions. Most strikingly, it places the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) in the same coalition as Amhara Fano forces that fought against it during the 2020–2022 conflict.
The alliance’s September 20 founding declaration establishes a shared political objective and promises organisational coordination. It does not announce a unified military command, integrated fighting force or timetable for joint operations.
Former enemies form common front
The organisations named are the Amhara Fano National Movement, Oromo Liberation Army, TPLF, Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF), Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front, Benishangul Peoples’ Liberation Movement and Gumuz Peoples’ Democratic Movement.
They say they will coordinate their political and organisational capacities to remove the Prosperity Party-led government and establish a transitional administration operating under a new charter.
The coalition says a transition should end Ethiopia’s conflicts, protect political and democratic rights, stabilise the economy and open an inclusive constitutional dialogue.
Its declaration also contains serious allegations against Abiy’s administration, including authoritarianism, political exclusion and responsibility for widespread violence. Those are claims made by the alliance and contested by the Ethiopian government, which has presented its national dialogue process as a route for resolving political and constitutional disputes.
The development adds another dimension to the shifting relationships Africa Briefing has examined in its coverage of changing alliances across the Horn of Africa.
Tigray role puts Pretoria under pressure
The inclusion of both TPLF and Fano is particularly significant because they fought on opposing sides during the Tigray war.
Amhara forces backed Ethiopia’s federal military against the TPLF before relations between Fano and Addis Ababa deteriorated. Fighting between Fano and federal forces has continued in Amhara since 2023.
The TPLF, meanwhile, signed the African Union-brokered Pretoria cessation of hostilities agreement with the federal government on November 2, 2022.
The African Union said the accord was intended to halt hostilities and create a foundation for lasting peace, security and stability.
TPLF spokesman Michael Asgedom has since gone further than the alliance declaration, telling AP that cooperation could extend to joint military action and saying the Pretoria agreement was no longer valid.
His comments represent the TPLF spokesman’s position. The seven-party declaration itself does not announce joint military operations or establish a common military command.
ONLF inclusion raises questions
The ONLF’s appearance on the membership list creates another unresolved issue.
In June, the organisation rejected suggestions that it was affiliated with armed groups and reaffirmed its commitment to the 2018 peace agreement with Ethiopia’s government.
An ONLF statement reported by Ethiopian Broadcasting Corporation identified Abdikarim Sheikh Muse as chairman and said the organisation remained committed to pursuing its political objectives peacefully.
It also said former chairman Abdirahman Mahdi had been removed at the organisation’s June 2025 congress and that subsequent statements or actions by him did not represent official ONLF policy.
It remains unclear whether the ONLF leadership headed by Abdikarim Sheikh Muse endorsed the new coalition, or whether its inclusion reflects another faction.
That uncertainty is also why describing all seven organisations simply as active armed groups risks obscuring important differences among them.
National dialogue offers different route
The alliance announcement coincided with an important stage in Ethiopia’s official National Dialogue process.
The Ethiopian National Dialogue Commission had announced that recommendations emerging from its work would be presented to the House of Peoples’ Representatives on September 20 — the same date on which the opposition alliance released its declaration.
The developments illustrate competing approaches to Ethiopia’s political crisis: an official dialogue operating through state institutions and a coalition seeking the current government’s removal and replacement with a transitional administration.
Eritrea allegation raises regional stakes
Abiy’s spokesperson, Billene Seyoum, told Reuters that alliance members had already been collaborating with financial support from Eritrea.
She said the announcement reinforced accusations previously made by the Ethiopian government.
Eritrea has repeatedly denied similar allegations. Its information minister did not immediately respond to Reuters’ request for comment on the latest claim.
Relations between Addis Ababa and Asmara have deteriorated sharply since the two governments cooperated during the Tigray war. Africa Briefing has reported on renewed Ethiopia–Eritrea tensions involving armed-group allegations, regional security and Ethiopia’s ambitions for greater Red Sea access.
Eritrea’s subsequent withdrawal from IGAD added another source of uncertainty to the region.
Alliance faces cohesion test
The immediate question is whether organisations separated by geography, political history and unresolved disputes can turn their declaration into sustained cooperation.
Several have previously fought each other, while their political objectives and regional interests do not always align. The founding statement acknowledges differences among members and says they have agreed to settle those disputes peacefully.
For now, the alliance has demonstrated a shared political objective rather than a proven nationwide military structure.
Whether it develops into coordinated political or military action will depend on whether its members can overcome those internal differences and create structures beyond the September 20 declaration.
The announcement nevertheless redraws part of Ethiopia’s opposition landscape by placing former battlefield enemies in the same coalition pursuing the stated objective of removing Abiy’s government and establishing a transitional administration.
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