Keypoints:
- Ethiopia prepares for subdued parliamentary vote
- Many voters see election outcome as predetermined
- Conflict and political tensions linger beneath calm atmosphere
ETHIOPIA heads to parliamentary elections on Monday amid a subdued public mood, limited campaigning and widespread expectations that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s ruling Prosperity Party will secure another overwhelming victory.
In Addis Ababa, there are few visible signs that Africa’s second most populous country is about to hold a vote that will shape the next five years of its political future. Election posters are almost absent from the capital, while only a handful of ruling party supporters wearing Prosperity Party T-shirts can be spotted on the streets.
The muted atmosphere reflects a growing belief among many Ethiopians that the outcome is predetermined.
Little excitement around campaign
The Prosperity Party staged its only major rally in Addis Ababa earlier this week, but the event ended shortly after dawn and Abiy himself did not attend.
Online debates involving candidates have attracted little public attention, while many residents say they have become detached from a political process they believe rarely produces genuine competition.
‘I don’t think my vote can have a significant impact on politics,’ Tesfalem, a designer in Addis Ababa, told AFP.
‘The voice of the people has never changed anything, and I don’t think it will this time either,’ said Amanuel, a teacher in the Oromia region.
Both men asked to be identified only by their first names, citing concerns over the country’s political climate.
Since the fall of the Derg military regime in 1991, Ethiopian elections have often produced near-total victories for ruling parties, with governments frequently accused by opposition groups of intimidation and electoral manipulation.
The Prosperity Party won 96 percent of parliamentary seats in the last election in 2021 and is running uncontested in 64 of Ethiopia’s 547 constituencies this year.
As explored in Africa Briefing’s analysis of how another Abiy victory could reshape Horn of Africa politics, Ethiopia’s domestic stability remains closely tied to wider regional security dynamics affecting Sudan, Somalia and Eritrea.
Reform legacy under scrutiny
Abiy came to power in 2018 promising political reform after years of authoritarian rule under the former governing coalition. He initially gained international praise after freeing jailed opposition figures, easing restrictions on the media and restoring diplomatic ties with Eritrea.
Those early reforms helped him secure the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019.
However, critics argue that political openness has narrowed significantly in recent years.
Several foreign media organisations were reportedly denied entry to cover the election, while Reporters Without Borders ranks Ethiopia 148th out of 180 countries in its latest Press Freedom Index.
Despite growing criticism from rights groups and opposition figures, the government continues to highlight economic progress achieved during Abiy’s administration.
Ethiopia’s economy has recorded annual growth exceeding seven percent in recent years, and some projections suggest growth could exceed 10 percent this year. The government has pursued economic liberalisation, expanded infrastructure and completed the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, expected to significantly increase electricity generation.
Recent Africa Briefing reporting on Ethiopia’s regional ambitions under Abiy Ahmed has highlighted the government’s efforts to position the country as a strategic economic and diplomatic power in East Africa despite persistent security challenges.
Yet frustration remains among many young Ethiopians facing unemployment, inflation and rising living costs, particularly in urban areas where economic growth has not always translated into improved living standards.
Quiet campaign masks deeper tensions
Although the election campaign has unfolded quietly in much of the capital, conflict continues to cast a shadow over parts of the country.
Armed groups in Amhara and Oromia have threatened to disrupt voting, while no election will take place in Tigray, where tensions remain high following the devastating 2020–2022 civil war.
The conflict displaced around one million people and left deep political and humanitarian scars across northern Ethiopia.
In Lalibela, the historic town in Amhara famous for its rock-hewn churches, some political gatherings have taken place in the city centre. But residents say insecurity remains a major concern outside urban areas.
‘Outside the city, where clashes regularly happen between federal forces and Fano fighters, it’s going to be difficult to vote,’ local tour guide Beza told AFP.
More than 40 opposition parties are registered for the election, but few are considered serious challengers to the ruling party.
The Ethiopian Citizens for Social Justice party, known as Ezema, is fielding candidates in fewer than 60 percent of constituencies.
Merera Gudina, head of the Committee of Opposition Parties, said the election appeared designed more to reinforce the government’s legitimacy abroad than to offer meaningful political competition.
‘Conducting elections under these conditions is essentially a ritual intended to show the international community that the government is elected every five years by the people,’ he told AFP.
Official results are expected on June 11.
