Keypoints:
- NOAA sees a very strong El Niño
- Ghana expects subdued September rainfall
- Cocoa disease remains a major crop threat
WEST Africa’s fragile cocoa recovery is facing a renewed threat as a strengthening El Niño, uncertain rainfall and stubborn crop disease raise concerns over the coming harvest in Ghana and Cote d’Ivoire, the countries at the centre of global cocoa production.
The warning comes after the world cocoa market moved beyond the extreme deficit recorded in 2023/24. But the recovery remains uncertain. The International Cocoa Organisation says output rebounded in 2024/25, while weather and production risks could still quickly shift market conditions.
Ghana and Cote d’Ivoire jointly account for about 60 percent of global cocoa production, according to a June joint cocoa declaration by the two countries, leaving global chocolate manufacturers highly exposed to any prolonged disruption across their cocoa belts.
El Niño strengthens sharply
The most immediate warning is coming from the Pacific.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center says El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90 percent probability that it will become a very strong event during the northern hemisphere autumn and winter of 2026/27.
NOAA also calculates a 69 percent probability that conditions during October to December could exceed previous El Niño episodes recorded since 1950 under its Relative Oceanic Niño Index measure.
But El Niño does not automatically mean drought in West Africa. NOAA cautions that even a particularly strong event does not guarantee specific regional impacts.
For cocoa, however, the risk lies in how changing weather affects rainfall distribution, temperatures and pod development during critical stages of the crop cycle.
Ghana rainfall outlook adds pressure
Ghana’s own weather outlook is adding to concerns.
The Ghana Meteorological Agency’s September rainfall forecast expects rainfall to be predominantly below normal to normal across much of the country.
That does not amount to a forecast of widespread drought. But the rainfall outlook comes at an important period for cocoa development and adds another source of uncertainty for farmers already dealing with disease and ageing trees.
The government is simultaneously trying to strengthen the industry and retain more value from cocoa at home.
As Africa Briefing reported in August, President John Dramani Mahama wants at least half of Ghana’s cocoa processed domestically from the 2026/27 season.
Any significant production setback could make that objective harder by increasing competition between exporters and local processors for available beans.
Disease remains entrenched
Weather is only one part of the production challenge.
Cocoa Swollen Shoot Virus Disease continues to damage farms in Ghana, while black pod remains another persistent threat.
In June, COCOBOD said 25,000 hectares of disease-affected cocoa farms in the Western North and Eastern regions had been earmarked for rehabilitation under the Ghana Tree Crop Diversification Project.
COCOBOD’s Cocoa Disease and Pest Control programme also targets about 1m hectares for black pod control, with fungicide application running between June and October.
The regulator has continued distributing farm inputs and monitoring cocoa communities as it tries to improve tree health, soil fertility and productivity.
The scale of rehabilitation underscores how much productive capacity has already been lost to disease and why weather shocks could have a greater impact on farms that are still recovering.
Cote d’Ivoire fights similar threats
Cote d’Ivoire, the world’s largest cocoa producer, is confronting many of the same pressures.
The country’s agriculture ministry warned in July that swollen shoot remained a serious threat after Agriculture Minister Bruno Nabagné Koné visited an infected cocoa farm in Guitrozon in the Guémon region.
Farmers were urged to remove infected trees quickly to prevent the virus spreading to healthy plantations.
At the same time, Cote d’Ivoire has been dealing with pressure in the physical cocoa market following a steep decline in international prices.
The Conseil du Café-Cacao said the government ordered and funded the purchase of 100,000 tonnes of cocoa, releasing CFA280bn ($496m) for an operation the regulator says has now been completed.
The intervention followed the accumulation of beans in producing regions as world cocoa prices fell sharply.
Africa Briefing previously examined how unsold cocoa stocks were putting pressure on Ivorian farmers.
Global recovery still has little cushion
The broader cocoa market has improved from the severe shortage conditions that pushed prices to historic highs.
The International Cocoa Organisation estimates global cocoa production rose 8.5 percent to 4.733m tonnes in 2024/25, while grindings fell 3.3 percent to 4.649m tonnes.
That produced an estimated surplus of just 37,000 tonnes.
The figure marks an improvement from the previous global deficit, but it is not evidence that the cocoa market has fully normalised.
ICCO has temporarily withheld production and grindings estimates for 2025/26, leaving uncertainty over whether the emerging recovery has carried firmly into the current season.
The organisation has also warned that cocoa futures remain highly sensitive to weather and production risks in major producing countries.
Coming months will determine the crop
A damaging harvest is not inevitable.
Rainfall distribution, temperature, disease control and pod development through the final months of 2026 will determine whether current warnings translate into a meaningful production loss.
But the convergence is uncomfortable: a potentially exceptional El Niño is strengthening just as Ghana forecasts predominantly below-normal to normal September rainfall and both leading producers continue battling diseases that have already forced costly rehabilitation of cocoa farms.
A serious setback in either Ghana or Cote d’Ivoire could quickly undermine confidence that global cocoa supplies are returning to stability.
The world cocoa market has moved beyond the extreme deficit of 2023/24.
Whether that recovery lasts may now depend heavily on what happens across West Africa over the next few months.
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