Keypoints:
- EAC trade jumps 37 percent to $52.3bn
- China absorbs about 41 percent of exports
- Intra-EAC exports rise but lose share
TRADE across the East African Community surged 37 percent to $52.3bn in the second quarter of 2026, as rapidly rising exports pushed the regional bloc into surplus and marked a sharp expansion in its external commerce.
But the headline growth masks an important shift. Much of the export boom is being driven by minerals and demand beyond the Community, particularly from China, while intra-EAC exports are growing more slowly and losing share in the region’s overall export basket.
Exports propel EAC into surplus
According to the EAC Quarterly Statistics Bulletin for April–June 2026, total trade rose from $38.2bn in the same quarter of 2025.
Exports increased 41.3 percent to $26.3bn, outpacing imports, which rose 32.9 percent to $26bn.
That left the EAC with a trade surplus of about $300m, reversing a $945.3m deficit recorded a year earlier.
African markets also played a major role in the expansion. Exports to African countries climbed 44.3 percent to $7.2bn, equivalent to 27.5 percent of total EAC exports.
Shipments to the Southern African Development Community rose 50.8 percent to $5.1bn, while exports to the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa increased 48.3 percent to $3.1bn.
The growth comes as African economies seek to deepen continental commerce through AfCFTA and build stronger regional value chains.
China absorbs two-fifths of exports
China recorded the most dramatic increase among the EAC’s major trading partners.
Exports to the world’s second-largest economy nearly doubled from $5.7bn in the second quarter of 2025 to $10.7bn a year later.
That means China alone absorbed about 41 percent of all EAC exports during the quarter, based on the bulletin’s figures.
Imports from China also rose sharply, from $4.7bn to $7.1bn.
The figures reinforce the importance of China to East Africa’s external trade and fit the wider commodity-for-manufactures pattern that continues to characterise much of China’s commercial relationship with African economies.
The United Arab Emirates and South Africa were also major export destinations, while India, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, the United States and Japan were among the region’s other leading sources of imports.
Minerals dominate export earnings
The composition of the export surge highlights another structural challenge.
Copper and precious metals accounted for 61.9 percent of total EAC exports, up from 58.7 percent in the same quarter of 2025.
Coffee, tea and spices remained important agricultural exports, but minerals increasingly dominated the region’s export earnings.
Such a high concentration can leave export earnings more exposed to swings in global commodity demand and prices, while underscoring the case for greater local processing and industrial value addition.
The issue forms part of a wider debate over whether African countries can capture more value from their mineral resources instead of relying heavily on raw or lightly processed commodity exports.
Regional exports grow but lose share
Intra-EAC exports also increased strongly, rising 33.2 percent to $3.2bn during the quarter.
However, their share of total EAC exports declined from 12.8 percent in the second quarter of 2025 to 12.1 percent a year later.
That means exports between partner states are expanding in value, but trade with markets outside the Community is growing even faster.
The trend is significant for a regional bloc whose integration agenda is centred on creating a larger common market and strengthening cross-border commercial links.
It also reflects a broader continental challenge, with intra-African trade constrained by limited industrial capacity and weak regional value chains.
On the import side, petroleum products remained the largest category, alongside machinery, transport equipment and industrial supplies.
For now, rapidly rising exports have been sufficient to keep the region in surplus. But the latest numbers suggest that the deeper test will be whether the EAC can turn its trade expansion into stronger manufacturing, more regional value addition and a greater share of commerce between its own member states.
