Keypoints:
- Nigeria no longer Africa’s top fuel importer
- Dangote refinery cuts dependence on imports
- South Africa leads amid refinery shutdowns
NIGERIA has relinquished its long-held position as Africa’s largest importer of refined petroleum products, thanks to the ramp-up of operations at the Dangote Refinery, the continent’s biggest oil processing facility.
South Africa now holds the title, according to CITAC, a leading consultancy in Africa’s downstream energy sector, which attributes the shift to reduced refining capacity in South Africa and increased output from Nigeria’s new privately owned mega-refinery.
A shift from dependency to production
The $20bn Dangote Refinery, owned by billionaire Aliko Dangote, began significantly increasing throughput in late 2024. With a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, the refinery is positioned to end Nigeria’s paradoxical reliance on imported fuels despite being one of the world’s top crude oil producers.
For decades, Nigeria’s refining sector languished under government mismanagement. The country’s four state-owned refineries—in Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna—built between the 1960s and 1980s, fell into near-total disrepair by the early 2000s. Policy inconsistencies, corruption, and an over-reliance on subsidised fuel imports prevented meaningful private investment.
‘Nigerian imports are dropping as a result of the continued operation of Dangote,’ said Elitsa Georgieva, Executive Director at CITAC, in comments to Bloomberg on the trend. The report underlines Nigeria’s changing status in the global fuel trade, propelled by domestic production finally catching up with crude reserves.
South Africa’s refining woes deepen
While Nigeria gains ground, South Africa’s position reflects deepening trouble in its refining sector. Since 2020, the country has seen several refineries close due to accidents, ageing infrastructure, and insufficient investment.
CITAC reports that South Africa imported 4.2 million tonnes of refined products in the first quarter of 2025, while Nigeria imported 3.1 million tonnes. The consultancy forecasts South Africa’s total imports for the year could reach 15.5 million tonnes—nearly twice Kenya’s 8.9 million and more than double Nigeria’s projected 6.4 million.
According to state-run logistics firm Transnet SOC Ltd, imports now meet over 60 per cent of South Africa’s domestic fuel demand. The government last year acquired the defunct Sapref refinery—previously owned by Shell Plc and BP Plc—in an attempt to revive local refining.
Traders eye new opportunities
Global fuel traders have already moved in to meet South Africa’s growing demand. Commodity giants Glencore Plc and Vitol SA are among those supplying the shortfall. Meanwhile, Swiss trading firm Gunvor has reportedly been shortlisted to acquire Shell’s South African retail network, suggesting a broader commercial push into the region.
Nigeria’s turnaround, led by the Dangote Refinery, may be just the beginning of a wider African shift toward fuel self-sufficiency. Other nations including Uganda and Mozambique are also planning refining investments, though such ventures remain fraught with financial and logistical challenges.
Even Dangote’s refinery faced delays and cost overruns before operations commenced. Yet its impact is already visible—reshaping Nigeria’s place in the energy trade and altering Africa’s fuel import map.
