Keypoints:
- Ouattara may run for a fourth term
- Disqualifications spark legitimacy fears
- Economic success masks political strain
COTE d’Ivoire has been hailed as one of Africa’s most impressive economic success stories in recent years, with consistent growth, booming exports, and rising investor confidence. But as Michelle Gavin of the US liberal think tank, the Council on Foreign Relations warns, the country’s political landscape tells a far less reassuring story.
In a recent commentary, Gavin calls attention to the sharp contrast between Côte d’Ivoire’s economic boom and the re-emergence of dangerous political undercurrents ahead of its presidential election in October.
Coup fears and uneasy calm
The government’s recent denial of swirling coup rumours on social media did little to calm nerves. That such claims were widely believed underscores a simmering distrust in political stability. According to Gavin, the country’s political ailments are not behind it—they are simply lying in wait.
President Alassane Ouattara, now in his 14th year in power and aged 83, is at the centre of growing political controversy. While credited with steering the nation out of civil war and into economic recovery, his extended rule is raising fears of democratic regression.
In 2020, Ouattara justified a third term bid on the grounds that the 2016 constitution reset term limits. The decision was met with deadly protests, and it
set a precedent that many now cite when warning of ‘constitutional coups’ across West Africa. With his party yet to name a successor, speculation is mounting that Ouattara may once again seek to extend his rule.
Disqualifications raise red flags
The electoral process itself is also under scrutiny. Civil society groups have raised concerns about the independence of electoral institutions, especially following the controversial disqualification of prominent opposition figure Tidjane Thiam. Although born in Côte d’Ivoire and having recently renounced his French citizenship to meet candidacy requirements, Thiam was barred from contesting.
He is not alone. Several opposition contenders have been disqualified by Ivorian courts, fuelling accusations of judicial manipulation. The irony is not lost on observers—Ouattara himself was once barred from contesting for similar reasons, caught in a long-standing debate over Ivoirité, or what it means to be truly Ivorian.
As Gavin points out, this politicised nationalism previously helped fuel civil war. Reviving it now could prove deeply destabilising.
Prosperity without political reform?
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Gavin’s analysis cautions against mistaking Côte d’Ivoire’s economic success for political health. While investors may focus on GDP figures and trade potential, the political foundation beneath those numbers is showing cracks.
‘African history is littered with “indispensable” men,’ Gavin writes, ‘whose belief that only they could hold their countries together led to ruin.’ The parallels to Côte d’Ivoire today are striking.
The country’s development gains are real, and its future remains full of promise. But unless its political leadership commits to democratic renewal and genuine competition, Côte d’Ivoire risks repeating the very past it has tried so hard to leave behind.
Based on analysis by Michelle Gavin, senior fellow for Africa studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. Original article available via CFR.
