Keypoints:
- Four opposition leaders barred from 2025 race
- Electoral commission rules out reinstatement
- Coalition yet to agree on unified strategy
COTE d’Ivoire’s opposition parties are scrambling for options after four high-profile figures were excluded from the October 25 presidential election, casting doubt over the fairness and competitiveness of the race.
As reported by AFP, those ruled out include Tidjane Thiam, head of the centre-right Democratic Party of Côte d’Ivoire (PDCI), former president Laurent Gbagbo, exiled ex-Prime Minister Guillaume Soro, and political activist Charles Blé Goudé. All four are barred from running or voting due to either legal convictions or, in Thiam’s case, a court challenge to his nationality.
No time for roll revisions, says commission
The Independent Electoral Commission (CEI) has said the August 26 cut-off for revising the electoral roll cannot be met, effectively closing the door on any last-minute reinstatements.
‘In the current context, nothing indicates we are heading towards such a decision,’ warned William Assanvo, a West Africa security expert who spoke to AFP.
Even for Gbagbo, Blé Goudé, and Soro, whose disqualifications hinge on previous convictions, a return would require an amnesty law or presidential pardon — neither of which appears to be on the table.
Proxy candidate strategy ruled out
A proxy candidate workaround—like the strategy used in Senegal by Ousmane Sonko—is unlikely to work here.
‘Gbagbo never imagined such a scenario. He is part of the generation that blocks the political horizon of the youth in his party,’ said Francis Akindes, a professor at Bouaké University.
Meanwhile, an associate of Thiam told AFP: ‘If we put forward someone else with a chance of winning, they too will be eliminated.’
Opposition unity in limbo, boycott looms
With leading figures blocked and no backup plan in motion, calls for an election boycott are bubbling up again. However, Gbagbo declared in 2023: ‘We will never again miss elections.’
Still, analysts say popular engagement is low. ‘This political drama is happening among elites the youth no longer relate to,’ Akindes added.
CAP-CI: a fractured front
Thiam’s PDCI, Gbagbo’s PPA-CI, and Blé Goudé’s Cojep party are part of the Coalition for Peaceful Change (CAP-CI) — a broader opposition alliance.
CAP-CI currently has two eligible presidential hopefuls: former first lady Simone Gbagbo and ex-Prime Minister Pascal Affi N’Guessan. But the coalition has so far declined to back a unified candidate, focusing instead on demands for electoral reform and national dialogue.
The government insists the disqualifications are judicial, not political, and denies any meddling in the electoral process.
With the race fast approaching and legal pathways closing, Côte d’Ivoire’s opposition now faces a narrowing field — and a difficult choice: coalesce or concede.
