Keypoints:
- AGOA’s expiry triggers tariffs across Africa
- US retreat contrasts with China’s open-door trade
- African leaders warn of lost investment and jobs
THE collapse of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) after 25 years of duty-free trade marks a defining moment in United States–Africa relations. Enacted in 2000 by former President Bill Clinton, the agreement granted more than 6,000 African products—from textiles to car parts—tariff-free access to American markets.
Its expiry on September 30, after Congress failed to pass a renewal bill, has left exporters in Kenya, Lesotho, South Africa and Madagascar facing punitive tariffs as high as 30 percent. For economies that built manufacturing capacity around AGOA, the shock is severe.
Kenya’s once-booming garment sector, which produced for global brands like Levi’s and Wrangler, faces new levies that could erode its competitiveness against Asian rivals. In Lesotho, where 45 percent of exports went to the US—mostly clothing—factories now fear closure as 15 percent tariffs bite.
Policy paralysis in Washington
Despite bipartisan support, political inertia in Washington has stalled AGOA’s renewal. President Donald Trump, back in office since January, has yet to publicly endorse the programme. His protectionist leanings, favouring ‘reciprocal tariffs’, clash with AGOA’s one-way trade preferences.
Although White House officials hinted at a one-year extension, no bill has been tabled and no congressional vote is scheduled. Meanwhile, new reciprocal tariffs have eroded the duty-free foundation: Kenya now faces a 10 percent duty, South Africa 30 percent, and Lesotho 15 percent.
The uncertainty has chilled investor confidence. Over the years, firms from China and India had built factories in Africa specifically to benefit from AGOA’s access to US markets. Those investments are now in doubt.
Beijing fills the vacuum
While Washington debates, Beijing has moved decisively. China recently removed import duties on nearly all African goods—except those from eSwatini, which still recognises Taiwan. The policy underscores Beijing’s long-term ambition to anchor Africa firmly within its economic orbit.
China overtook the US in 2009 as Africa’s largest trading partner and has deepened its presence through the Belt and Road Initiative, financing railways, ports and industrial parks across the continent.
Carlos Lopes, professor at the University of Cape Town’s Nelson Mandela School of Public Governance, told the South China Morning Post that AGOA’s lapse ‘creates fertile ground’ for Beijing to expand its reach.
‘This is not a shift in African preferences,’ Lopes said. ‘It is a response to Beijing offering easier market access and tangible investment commitments.’
He added that China’s removal of most tariffs on African exports casts it as ‘a pragmatic partner willing to integrate African economies into its trade orbit with fewer political conditions.’
‘No trade, no aid’
Cameron Hudson, senior associate at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said the expiry exposes a contradiction in President Trump’s oft-repeated slogan of ‘trade, not aid’.
‘What he’s produced is a policy of “no trade, no aid”,’ Hudson said. ‘The AGOA collapse symbolises a lack of engagement or vision for how Washington can reinvent its relationship with the world’s fastest-growing region.’
For African leaders such as South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa and Kenya’s William Ruto, who have lobbied for a long-term extension, Washington’s silence sends a troubling message about its reliability.
Lopes warned that a failure to renew AGOA ‘would be read not only as a setback for trade preferences but also as a signal that the US is retreating from a continent that has consistently called for deeper engagement beyond security partnerships.’
Economic tremors and shifting alliances
South Africa’s automotive sector, Kenya’s garment industry and Lesotho’s textile factories face the immediate economic impact. Yet analysts note that the greater consequence lies in perception. The AGOA collapse reinforces the narrative of a disengaged America, driven by short-term political calculations rather than a coherent Africa strategy.
Jason Tuvey, deputy chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, said that while the economic hit may be moderate, the symbolic loss is huge. “It reinforces the sense that the US is stepping back from Africa, leaving more space for China to expand its influence,” he noted.
Beijing’s approach—anchored in infrastructure finance and tariff-free access—appears increasingly attractive. African policymakers, long frustrated by conditional Western aid, see China’s commercial pragmatism as an alternative model.
A new phase of engagement
Analysts expect Washington’s future dealings with Africa to become more bilateral and transactional, targeting nations rich in minerals or vital to US security. For the rest, the incentives to look eastward will grow stronger.
As Lopes observed, America’s hesitation ‘undermines a reputation for dependability built over 25 years.’ The risk is that African nations, seeking predictable partners for industrialisation, will deepen ties with Beijing instead.
The collapse of AGOA, therefore, is more than a trade policy lapse—it’s a geopolitical turning point. It signals a redistribution of influence on a continent central to the world’s economic future.
