Keypoints:
- Traoré’s popularity rises amid radical reforms
- Military rule gains youth support in Burkina Faso
- Economic promise hinges on good governance
AT just 36 years old, Captain Ibrahim Traoré is not only Burkina Faso’s head of state but also the world’s youngest sitting president—a stark contrast to the continent’s average presidential age of 63. He seized power in September 2022 following a military coup that ousted Lieutenant Colonel Paul-Henri Damiba, who had himself removed President Roch Kaboré earlier that year. Traoré’s meteoric rise, and the continued turbulence that marks his tenure, is emblematic of a new chapter in the Sahel’s evolving political landscape.
His leadership, forged amid crisis, has not been without its own challenges. Just last week, the military government narrowly survived what appeared to be yet another coup attempt—one of several since Traoré’s ascent. It reflects the volatile foundation upon which the current administration stands.
Traoré’s rise and the new Sahel order
When Traoré delivered his inaugural address, he declared that Burkina Faso was in a state of emergency. He cited urgent crises in security, defence, healthcare, infrastructure and social action. He pledged to restore order, fight terrorism and respect a transition timetable brokered with the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), aimed at returning the country to civilian rule by July 1 2024.
However, much has changed. In a dramatic pivot, Burkina Faso withdrew from ECOWAS and formed a new alliance—the Alliance of Sahel States—alongside fellow coup-led governments in Mali and Niger. Under a revised national transition plan, Traoré is now expected to remain in power until at least 2029.
His popularity has soared during this time. When Ghana hosted President John Mahama’s inauguration on January 7, Traoré received the loudest applause among the 21 African leaders in attendance. This reaction was not merely ceremonial; it captured a deepening sentiment across much of the continent—particularly among the youth—that views military leadership as a viable antidote to political dysfunction.
Indeed, data from Afrobarometer supports this perception. Nearly two-thirds of Burkinabé now believe the military should intervene when leaders abuse their power. Even more striking, 66 percent express acceptance of military rule—up sharply from just 24 percent in 2012. That such results emerged under a military regime speaks volumes about the public’s general approval.
From popularity to performance: the real test
Still, Traoré’s appeal is not simply about a change in leadership style or a fatigue with failed civilian rule. His governance choices—often radical and populist—have resonated with many. One of his first acts was to cancel a salary increase awarded to government officials under his predecessor. He, meanwhile, continues to draw only his military captain’s wage. Such symbolic restraint has earned him the public’s respect.
Economically, Traoré has pursued a nationalist and assertive development path. His government nationalised two major gold mines, ceased exports of unrefined gold to Europe, and launched a national refinery with the capacity to process 150 tonnes of gold annually. These steps are part of a broader push to ensure Burkina Faso retains more value from its natural resources.
In the agricultural sector, his administration has ramped up investments, including in cotton processing, with the establishment of the National Support Centre for Artisanal Cotton Processing. A new international airport is underway, and additional state-backed industrial initiatives have been introduced to promote self-sufficiency and local job creation.
In a move sure to further distinguish his leadership, Traoré has rejected financial aid from the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, arguing that Burkina Faso can pursue its own development agenda without Western loans or conditionalities. For young Africans eager for genuine independence from neocolonial influence, this message hits home. But such a stance also carries immense risk if alternative financing or investment is not secured.
Yet, observers caution that state-led industrialisation must not fall into familiar traps. Across Africa, many publicly owned enterprises have become mired in inefficiencies, political patronage, and mismanagement. Without robust governance reforms, Traoré’s ambitions could falter.
Building a legacy beyond revolutionary zeal
Burkina Faso’s macroeconomic data reveals a mixed picture. On the one hand, GDP has risen dramatically—from $3.2bn in 1990 to $18.3bn in 2023. On the other, the country remains near the bottom of global human development rankings. According to the 2023/2024 Human Development Report, Burkina Faso is ranked 185th out of 193 countries, and it sits 149th out of 167 on the 2024 Sustainable Development Goals Index. More than 64.5 percent of its population remains multidimensionally poor.
Despite these daunting statistics, the outlook is not without promise. The African Futures and Innovation team at the Institute for Security Studies projects that Burkina Faso’s economy could grow at an average rate of eight percent annually from 2025 to 2043. Under that scenario, GDP per capita would rise by $1,120 above the current trend line, reducing income poverty to just 2.6 percent of the population and lifting around 2.4 million Burkinabé out of poverty.
Moreover, if governance reforms were implemented alongside these growth strategies, an additional 500,000 people could be freed from extreme poverty, and GDP per capita would increase by another $240.
But that path to prosperity is neither automatic nor guaranteed. The country’s most immediate challenge remains terrorism, which has rendered around 40 percent of its territory effectively ungovernable. Thousands of schools and healthcare facilities in affected areas have been shut down, and over two million people have been internally displaced. The United Nations Refugee Agency reports that the number of Burkinabé requiring humanitarian aid grew by 35 percent between 2022 and 2023 alone.
Long-term development will also depend on institutional reform. Corruption must be tackled head-on, and public service delivery mechanisms improved. Local governments need the autonomy, training and funding to respond to community-level challenges. Security sector reform is critical—not only to combat insurgents, but to professionalise the military and build trust with civilians.
Equally essential is a return to democratic rule. Transitioning to constitutional governance is not simply a box to tick for international legitimacy; it is foundational to creating the political stability that attracts investment and enables long-term economic planning. The African Union, ECOWAS (despite Burkina Faso’s exit), and international partners must support this 60-month transition framework to ensure its credibility and success.
Traoré’s ascent has drawn comparisons to historical figures like Ghana’s Jerry Rawlings, who rose to power at 32 in a revolutionary bid to purge corruption. Rawlings’ legacy remains deeply polarising after nearly two decades in power. For Traoré, the challenge is clear: maintain the zeal of a reformer without succumbing to the temptations of power.
With the right balance of ambition, humility, and inclusive governance, Traoré could reshape not only Burkina Faso’s future—but the very model of African leadership.
Enoch Randy Aikins is a Researcher, African Futures and Innovation, ISS
This article was first published in Africa Tomorrow, the blog of the ISS’ African Futures and Innovation programme.
