Keypoints:
- Rapid urbanisation is reshaping Africa’s food consumption patterns
- Soybean imports are rising as domestic production lags demand
- US exporters see Africa as a strategic growth market
AFRICA’S accelerating population growth, rapid urbanisation and changing diets are transforming the continent into one of the world’s most promising new markets for grain and oilseed exporters, according to leading agricultural economists monitoring global food trends.
Experts say these shifts are creating long-term opportunities for US soybean producers at a time when traditional export destinations are becoming increasingly competitive.
The outlook was outlined during the January 6 episode of Kansas State University’s Agriculture Today podcast, featuring Peter Goldsmith, director and principal investigator of the University of Illinois’ Soybean Innovation Lab, and Guy Allen, senior economist at Kansas State University’s IGP Institute.
Both economists said Africa’s evolving food systems could reshape global agricultural trade flows over the coming decades.
Urban growth reshaping food demand
Africa is projected to experience the fastest population growth of any region globally over the next several decades. While much of the continent remains rural, cities are expanding at more than twice the rate of rural areas.
That urban shift has major implications for what people eat.
‘As populations become more urban, disposable income grows and diets change,’ Allen said.
Urban consumers typically demand more processed foods, vegetable oils and animal protein — all of which rely heavily on grain and oilseed supply chains. Poultry and egg production are expanding rapidly across Africa’s major cities, increasing demand for soybean meal used in animal feed.
Economists say these demographic and dietary changes are positioning Africa as a major growth market for soybeans and other grains. Domestic production has struggled to keep pace, forcing processors to rely increasingly on imports — a dynamic that could open a significant export opportunity for US agriculture.
From marginal market to strategic focus
Goldsmith said US interest in Africa’s soybean sector dates back more than a decade. In 2012, sub-Saharan Africa accounted for less than one percent of global soybean consumption, and demand was limited.
‘Back then, palm oil dominated the market and most countries outside South Africa were closed to genetically modified crops,’ he said.
Since then, investment, policy reform and private-sector engagement have accelerated.
‘Things have advanced dramatically,’ Goldsmith said. ‘In partnership with US companies, sub-Saharan Africa has seen strong growth and increasing interest in developing soybean markets.’
Imports filling widening supply gaps
Despite rising local production in countries such as Nigeria, Zambia and Tanzania, soybean supply has not kept up with demand.
Goldsmith said processors across the region are operating at only about 50 percent of capacity due to raw material shortages.
‘They are trying to find every soybean they can,’ he said. ‘The gap is being filled by imports.’
Palm oil remains the dominant edible oil across much of Africa, but economists expect soybean oil to gain market share as food manufacturing expands. Soybean meal demand is also rising alongside growth in poultry, aquaculture and commercial livestock production.
Identifying priority African markets
To assess export potential, Allen and Goldsmith examined four representative countries: Egypt, Ghana, Nigeria and Tanzania.
Egypt is currently Africa’s largest importer of soy products.
‘It is a fairly evolved and sophisticated market,’ Allen said, describing it as a mature importer with established trade channels and consistent demand from food and feed industries.
Ghana and Nigeria offer logistical advantages for US exporters due to Atlantic shipping routes and expanding consumer bases. Tanzania, while less developed, reflects the structural conditions common across many emerging African economies.
Infrastructure and trade conditions matter
Market access varies significantly across the continent.
Allen said availability of hard currency, port infrastructure and trade institutions often determines whether countries can participate in bulk grain imports.
Egypt, Ghana and Nigeria generally have adequate port capacity and foreign-exchange access. In contrast, many smaller economies face currency shortages and logistical constraints that limit import volumes.
Tariff regimes also differ. Some countries impose higher duties on processed soy products such as oil and meal in order to promote domestic processing, while whole soybeans are typically imported duty-free.
Regulatory and technical hurdles
Despite the growth outlook, challenges remain.
‘Africa is unfamiliar,’ Goldsmith said. ‘There hasn’t historically been a lot of commercial trade, and business practices can differ. That’s a hurdle, but it’s not unique.’
A more significant barrier is regulation of genetically modified crops. While South Africa permits GM products, many African countries historically restricted their use.
Progress has been made in Kenya, Ethiopia, Nigeria and Ghana, but broader acceptance is critical for large-scale commodity trade.
‘For US growers, markets must be open to GM soybeans and corn,’ Goldsmith said. ‘Commodity markets don’t function well when products are restricted.’
Building capacity beyond imports
Allen added that technical knowledge gaps also limit soybean utilisation. Many processors remain accustomed to palm oil and require training to adopt soybean oil and meal efficiently.
Organisations such as the US Soybean Export Council and the Soybean Innovation Lab are addressing this through education programmes, including Soy 360, aimed at improving feed formulation, processing efficiency and industrial standards.
Such efforts, economists argue, are essential to embedding soybeans into African food systems rather than relying solely on imports.
Strategic importance for US agriculture
Both economists stressed that Africa’s importance extends beyond near-term sales.
China currently accounts for more than 60 percent of global oilseed trade but has increasingly shifted soybean sourcing toward South America, intensifying competition for US exporters.
‘The opportunity in Africa is that we’re not competing over an existing market,’ Allen said. ‘This is new demand. The pie is getting bigger.’
Goldsmith believes Africa’s long-term potential could rival — or even exceed — China’s market if engagement begins early.
‘This is a fast-growing import market where the US has a comparative advantage,’ he said. ‘The fundamentals are there, and they’re unfolding in ways we’ve never seen before.’
