Keypoints:
- $8.6tn of minerals remain undeveloped
- Poor geological data keeps capital away
- Rail, ports and power must anchor beneficiation
BENEATH Africa’s soil lies enough mineral wealth to reshape its destiny. Above ground, however, the continent still struggles to turn that endowment into industry, jobs and geopolitical leverage.
That paradox sits at the heart of a major new study released at Mining Indaba in Cape Town by the Africa Finance Corporation (AFC), which estimates that Africa hosts $29.5 trillion in mine-site mineral value — roughly 20 percent of global mineral wealth — yet captures only a fraction of its economic potential.
The report, titled the Compendium of Africa’s Strategic Minerals, reframes mining not as a narrow extractive activity but as the backbone of an African industrial project anchored in power, transport, manufacturing and regional markets.
What this means for Africa
Put simply, Africa is rich underground but structurally constrained above ground. Without better geological data, integrated infrastructure and demand anchored inside the continent, billions of dollars in value will continue to flow outward rather than building domestic industry.
The study argues that the next phase of African development depends on turning mineral endowment into execution.
A buried $8.6tn opportunity
According to AFC, $8.6 trillon of Africa’s mineral wealth remains undeveloped, not because deposits are absent, but because risk remains too high for large-scale exploration capital.
Across much of the continent, geological data is fragmented, uneven and in some cases decades out of date. Coverage varies sharply between countries, transparency is inconsistent, and data-sharing mechanisms are limited.
The Compendium argues that modern airborne surveys, open geological platforms and harmonised standards would lower investor risk, shorten project timelines and reduce financing costs — all prerequisites for unlocking new mines.
Crucially, the $29.5 trillion figure measures value only at the mine gate. Once minerals are refined into steel, aluminium, fertiliser, batteries and alloys, AFC says Africa’s economic potential expands ‘by an order of magnitude’.
Steel and the price of misalignment
The report uses the steel value chain as a case study of Africa’s structural challenge.
Africa holds world-class deposits of manganese, chromium and nickel, while iron ore production is entering a new growth cycle. Yet these supply chains remain commercially tied to Asian steel demand rather than Africa’s own development needs.
When China’s property sector slowed, the impact rippled straight into African mineral markets. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, cobalt production quotas were introduced to stabilise falling prices. In South Africa, primary steelmaking capacity contracted amid weak domestic demand, high energy costs and fragmented offtake. In Gabon, major manganese operations periodically suspended production as Asian orders softened.
This occurred even as African governments expanded railways, ports, housing and industrial capacity — all steel-intensive activities. The constraint, AFC argues, is not a lack of demand, but a failure to anchor demand within Africa itself.
Infrastructure as the missing link
Rather than treating roads, rail and power as secondary, the Compendium places infrastructure at the centre of mineral strategy.
The study overlays mineral deposits with rail corridors, ports, power plants and transmission lines to identify where regional value chains could realistically be built. It calls for shared rail investments, cross-border electricity grids and industrial zones clustered near mineral belts.
The Lobito Corridor, linking the Copperbelt to the Atlantic, is highlighted as a model for integrated development: faster logistics, lower carbon intensity and stronger market access.
Reliable, affordable electricity is presented as the decisive factor for beneficiation. Without stable power, smelters, refineries and battery plants remain commercially unviable.
Minerals in a fragmenting world
The Compendium situates Africa’s strategy within a shifting global economy marked by trade tensions, export controls and industrial reshoring.
As the US, EU and China seek to diversify critical mineral supplies, Africa’s strategic importance is rising — but only if it can offer value-added production rather than raw ore.
AFC urges selective integration into segments where processing is concentrated and politically sensitive, including rare earths, graphite, manganese and uranium — materials vital for defence, clean energy and high-tech manufacturing.
Signs of momentum
Despite structural constraints, the report notes encouraging progress across several countries.
Angola is advancing one of the world’s largest high-grade rare earth deposits for magnet metals.
Mozambique has become a key feedstock anchor for graphite and battery anode materials.
Southern African projects are moving ahead on battery-grade manganese sulphate.
Namibia and Malawi have restarted uranium production across 2024–25.
These developments signal a gradual shift from simple extraction to higher-value production.
AFC’s development lens
Launching the Compendium, AFC president Samaila Zubairu said the objective was to ‘reframe the sector through an African lens and convert endowment into execution pathways for collective prosperity’.
He added that the report maps full mineral value chains — linking reserves and production to processing capacity, power systems, transport networks and regional industrial corridors — to improve transparency and guide smarter investment.
For AFC, mining is inseparable from energy, logistics and regional planning.
From rocks to industry
As Mining Indaba delegates debated deals in Cape Town, the message was clear: Africa does not lack minerals — it lacks coordination.
If governments, financiers and regional bodies can align geology with grids, rails with refineries, and mines with African markets, the continent could move from price-taker to value creator.
For now, the $29.5 trillion remains largely beneath African soil — a measure of both promise and unfinished work.
