Keypoints:
- 58–60 percent voice Trump-era optimism
- 58 percent fear US resource pressure
- China retains stronger positive perceptions
YOUNG Africans surveyed across 16 countries are viewing Donald Trump’s second administration with guarded pragmatism, expressing optimism about possible gains in security, trade and youth empowerment while remaining wary of US resource ambitions and the dismantling of USAID.
The findings point less to an ideological embrace of Trump than to a generation judging foreign partners by what they can deliver. Respondents appear willing to negotiate with Washington, but many also expect African leaders to protect national interests when aid, minerals and sovereignty collide.
The African Youth Survey 2026 was based on 4,901 face-to-face interviews with nationals aged 18 to 24 across 16 countries. About 300 people were interviewed in each country, with a 50:50 gender split.
Long-term comparisons use only the eight countries included in every edition: Congo-Brazzaville, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, Rwanda, South Africa and Zambia.
Optimism does not equal endorsement
The survey found that 60 percent of respondents were very or somewhat optimistic that Trump’s administration would produce a better future through youth empowerment and security co-operation and counterterrorism.
Some 59 percent expressed optimism about trade relations and democracy and governance support. Military assistance, health programmes, development aid, respect for international norms and political relations each attracted combined optimism of 58 percent.
Those figures should not be presented as a direct swing towards Trump.
In 2024, respondents were asked whether a Biden or Trump administration would be more beneficial for their countries. Biden led by 42 percent to 23 percent.
The 2026 survey instead asked respondents about expected outcomes under an administration already in office. A pre-election preference between candidates and expectations of a serving administration are different measures and should not be treated as evidence of a direct shift in political support.
Co-operation comes with clear limits
Some 52 percent said their leaders should find a way to work with Trump regardless of their differences, while 42 percent said their governments should stand up to him and defend national interests.
The country-level divide was sharp. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, 71 percent favoured co-operation. In South Africa, 71 percent wanted their leaders to resist Trump.
That willingness to negotiate sits beside deep suspicion. Some 58 percent believed the US could disregard international law to secure access to natural resources in their countries.
Concern reached 70 percent in South Africa and Liberia and 68 percent in Ghana and Somalia.
The findings reflect the increasingly transactional relationship examined in Africa Briefing’s coverage of Trump’s US-Africa policy reset and Washington’s pursuit of African critical minerals.
Nicholas Westcott, Professor of Practice in Diplomacy at SOAS University of London, argued in a June 2026 African Affairs briefing that Trump’s second-term approach increasingly treats Africa as a source of critical minerals and commercial returns.
The administration presents its policy differently, describing it as a move away from aid dependence and towards mutually beneficial trade and investment.
USAID cuts divide respondents
USAID ceased implementing foreign-assistance programmes on July 1, 2025, with selected functions and programmes aligned with administration priorities transferred to the State Department. Other functions were discontinued.
According to the State Department’s account of the reorganisation, the remaining assistance would be administered in line with the administration’s ‘America First’ foreign policy.
Within the survey, 46 percent expected the dismantling of USAID as an independent foreign-assistance implementing agency to harm their country.
Concern was highest in Mozambique at 76 percent and in Kenya and Rwanda at 63 percent each.
Healthcare services and disease prevention were identified by 53 percent as the areas most likely to be affected. Education and training followed at 38 percent, economic development and entrepreneurship at 35 percent, and agriculture and food security at 34 percent.
Yet 26 percent believed the changes could have a positive effect by forcing African leaders to confront domestic challenges directly. That view rose to 41 percent in Ghana and 40 percent in Nigeria.
A further 16 percent expected little or no effect, while 11 percent said they did not know.
The split captures a wider debate about whether Trump’s Africa aid cuts will deepen hardship or force governments to build more resilient domestic systems.
China retains stronger goodwill
The US was considered influential by 81 percent of respondents, up from 74 percent in 2024 and marginally ahead of China at 79 percent.
But visibility did not translate into the strongest approval.
Among respondents who recognised their influence, 95 percent viewed China’s role positively, compared with 85 percent for the US. China was also considered an ally by 95 percent, the highest rating for any foreign power tested.
Russia’s perceived influence rose from 44 percent to 54 percent, while India reached 45 percent. The figures suggest that young Africans see a widening field of potential partners.
Some 55 percent said their countries should prioritise powers capable of delivering trade and investment benefits, regardless of their political systems.
Infrastructure and economic investment were the leading criteria for choosing an ally, selected by 43 percent. Respect for natural resources followed at 39 percent, while democratic values and human rights were selected by 34 percent.
Access to advanced technology and knowledge transfer attracted 30 percent, while 29 percent prioritised military and security support.
Jobs remain the ultimate measure
Across the eight countries included in every survey wave, support for democracy remained substantial. Some 73 percent said it was always preferable to other forms of government.
But 56 percent also said Western-style democracy was unsuitable for Africa, pointing to demand for a model that combines political participation with stability, national unity and effective public services.
In those same tracked markets, creating well-paying jobs was identified by 27 percent as Africa’s most important need, narrowly ahead of reducing government corruption at 25 percent.
Making it easier to start a business was selected by 16 percent, up from 10 percent in 2020.
Those priorities help explain the Trump findings. The young people surveyed are not offering Washington unconditional approval. They are signalling that ideology, historical ties and diplomatic language carry less weight when they are not matched by employment, investment, technology and security.
Their message to African leaders is equally demanding: engage every major power, bargain hard and ensure that foreign interest produces visible benefits at home.
