Keypoints:
- Africa loses billions by not trading internally
- Stronger, faster institutions needed for real transformation
- AfDB must lead with African priorities, not donor agendas
ACROSS Africa today, a quiet but devastating tragedy unfolds. It is not a shortage of ambition, nor a lack of resources, that holds the continent back. It is the deeper failure to fully believe in ourselves: to invest in African solutions, trust in African products, and trade first and foremost with African partners.
The evidence is everywhere. Angola imports $500 million worth of beef annually while neighbouring Namibia produces high-quality, EU-certified beef at a lower price. Malawi imports $48 million in maize while Tanzania, just a short distance away, exports maize at nearly half that price. Zambia sources 360 million litres of fuel from overseas suppliers, even though Angola offers it far cheaper.
These are not minor inefficiencies. They reveal a systemic failure cutting across the Regional Economic Communities (RECs) of the continent — a failure of coordination, infrastructure, political will, and above all, of trust.
Each year, Southern Africa alone forfeits an estimated $32bn in potential intra-African trade because of these dysfunctions. The African Export–Import Bank’s 2024 Intra-African Trade Report highlights that intra-African trade remains stuck at about 15 percent of total trade volumes, compared to over 60 percent in the European Union and nearly 50 percent in Asia.
The resources exist. The markets are close. The demographics are in Africa’s favour. Yet we remain trapped in patterns of looking outward for what we already possess.
The cost of this failure is steep: lost jobs for Africa’s youth, inflated food and fuel prices for families, wasted foreign reserves, and increased vulnerability to global economic shocks. In a world of tightening financial conditions, climate risks, and fragmented supply chains, Africa’s dependency model is no longer just inefficient — it is dangerous.
Fragile macroeconomic foundations
Africa’s macroeconomic context is precarious but not hopeless. According to the IMF’s April 2025 World Economic Outlook, growth slowed to 3.2 percent in 2024, down from 3.8 percent the previous year. Public debt for sub-Saharan Africa remains elevated at approximately 60 percent of GDP, and while inflation is moderating, it still averages 12.5 percent.
Africa continues to pay the world’s highest risk premiums for accessing capital markets, spending five times more on debt service than it does on concessional financing.
Yet these statistics only scratch the surface. The true challenge is structural: fragmented economic spaces, underdeveloped regional value chains, weak cross-border logistics, and an infrastructure financing gap that the African Development Bank (AfDB) estimates at $68–108bn annually.
Without fixing these deeper issues, no wave of external finance — however generous — will sustainably change Africa’s economic trajectory.
Emerging rays of hope
Despite these challenges, there are bright spots across Africa’s regions.
In West Africa, Nigeria’s efforts in energy diversification, Ghana’s progress in fiscal stabilisation, and Cote d’Ivoire’s rise in agribusiness productivity offer hope. East Africa sees Kenya leading digital finance innovation and Tanzania boosting agricultural productivity. COMESA countries like Rwanda are becoming technology hubs, while Ethiopia expands its industrial parks.
In the Arab Maghreb Union, Morocco’s manufacturing boom and Egypt’s renewable energy drive lead by example. Southern Africa’s infrastructure corridors and green energy investments are reshaping trade connectivity. ECCAS is investing in cross-border agriculture and logistics, improving food security in Central Africa.
These are not isolated achievements. They represent a continental ambition that is already alive — one that must now be scaled, harmonised, and trusted.
The failure of paper agreements
Trade agreements alone are not enough. Connectivity is not built on paper, and trust cannot be legislated into existence.
Building a truly integrated Africa demands investment in hard infrastructure like roads, ports, and power grids. It demands investment in soft infrastructure like trust, standards harmonisation, and cross-border cooperation.
It also demands stronger institutions — not just in technical expertise but in political commitment to sovereign, sustainable, and inclusive development.
Africa needs banks, trade platforms, regulatory bodies, and investment agencies that move with the urgency of the continent’s needs — not at the pace of donor approvals.
The AfDB’s pivotal role
The African Development Bank must be at the heart of this transformation. But it must not simply lend more money — it must lend smarter. It must not only mobilise finance — it must help build local industries, generate jobs, and foster regional value chains.
The AfDB must also champion Africa’s climate priorities: resilience, adaptation, and just energy transitions that create prosperity, not just carbon credits.
Africa’s institutions must be judged by their proximity to African priorities, their speed of execution, and their credibility with African citizens — not by their ratings with donors or credit agencies.
A faster, smarter AfDB would support countries that are implementing reforms and investing in youth, green energy, and regional integration. It would deploy capital not when conditions are perfect, but when needs are urgent.
Africa’s recovery story must not be about isolated reformers battling alone. It must be about a continental movement anchored by serious institutions.
Global consequences of Africa’s success
The stakes extend beyond Africa. Rising irregular migration to Europe — already exceeding 150,000 arrivals annually by 2024 — reflects growing desperation driven by lost opportunities at home. The cost of managing irregular migration across the Mediterranean has exceeded €11 billion for European countries over the past decade.
A prosperous Africa would mean reduced migration pressures, expanded markets, and more diversified global supply chains. Non-African AfDB member countries — from the United States to China to the European Union — increasingly understand that Africa’s resilience underpins global stability.
Building resilient economies in Africa is not charity. It is a rational investment in shared prosperity and security.
A call to action: no more waiting
Africa’s share of global foreign direct investment remains stubbornly below 5 percent. Meanwhile, the financing gap for achieving the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals in Africa has ballooned to over $200bn annually.
If Africa fails to unlock intra-African trade, close its infrastructure deficits, and unleash its internal markets, it risks missing its demographic dividend — and with it, the chance to define the 21st century as the African century.
The time to act is now. Africans must stop buying what they already produce. They must trust in their own institutions, their own markets, and their own young innovators.
Africa’s future is in its own hands
Africa’s transformation cannot be executed from afar. It must be driven from within — by Africans, for Africans, with partners who respect Africa’s agency and ambition.
The African Development Bank must lead boldly, decentralising operations, accelerating project delivery, and aligning tightly with national systems. Development banks must serve the people, not bureaucracies.
Africa’s moment is here — but it will not be handed over. It must be seized, shaped, and secured.
Africa must trade, invest, and trust in itself now.
Dr Sidi Ould Tah is a candidate for the AfDB Presidency, May 2025
