Keypoints:
- Solar imports from China reach record highs
- Dangote refinery reshapes Nigeria’s fuel outlook
- Local solar production slowly gathers pace
WHAT began as a scattering of rooftop panels and small pilot projects is rapidly transforming into a continental energy shift. Across Africa, solar power has moved from the margins of development to the heart of energy planning, driven by falling costs, improving technologies, and surging demand for affordable electricity.
Global energy think tank Ember, analysing trade data from China’s General Administration of Customs (GACC), described the surge as ‘the first evidence of a take-off in solar in Africa’, Anadolu news agency reported. Over the past year, solar panel imports into the continent have jumped dramatically, signalling that large-scale expansion is underway.
Imports surge across the continent
Dave Jones, director of Ember’s Global Insights Programme, said much of Africa’s solar growth has been propelled by utility-scale projects, from major installations to village-level mini-grids. Algeria stands out, with solar imports rising 33-fold in just a year, making it the continent’s third-largest importer.
But the trend is not limited to large projects. Countries without major utility-scale investments are also recording sharp increases in imports, reflecting a global pattern of households, businesses, and government buildings adopting their own solar systems.
Ember’s analysis found that solar panel imports from China to Africa jumped by 60 percent in the past year, nearly tripling outside South Africa. Twenty African countries hit record highs, although the surge underlined reliance on Chinese supply as local manufacturing capacity remains limited.
Building local capacity
Efforts are underway to address this gap. Morocco, Egypt, and South Africa are leading moves to expand domestic solar panel production, while India is being cited as a model for reducing dependence on Chinese imports.
Other nations are scaling up renewable projects. In Benin, Axian Energy and Sika Capital recently announced four photovoltaic plants with a combined capacity of 60 megawatts. The aim is to boost renewables to 30 percent of Benin’s electricity mix by 2030, up from 16 percent today.
Jones said such developments deliver far more than clean power. ‘The value that’s bringing to the economy is really helping,’ he explained. ‘It eclipses the value of the solar panel imports themselves.’
Diesel dependence lingers — but shifts emerging
Diesel generators continue to provide a lifeline in much of Africa but remain a costly crutch. According to Jones, in Africa’s top ten solar-importing nations, diesel imports outweigh solar imports by a factor of between 30 and 100. Yet solar panels can often pay for themselves within six months.
‘Most countries in Africa are importers of especially refined fuels,’ he noted. ‘Even Nigeria, which is a massive crude oil producer, has no refining capacity and imports all of its diesel requirements, which is absurd.’
That picture, however, is beginning to change. The newly operational Dangote refinery in Lagos — Africa’s largest — has started meeting much of Nigeria’s refined fuel demand. Analysts see this as a potential game-changer for the region, but warn that the country’s historic reliance on imports underlines the vulnerability of fuel-dependent economies.
Jones argued that while domestic refining eases one pressure point, it does not resolve the structural challenge: heavy dependence on fossil fuels. Solar, he stressed, remains a faster, cheaper and cleaner route to reducing costs and ensuring long-term energy security.
Expanding horizons
Historically, solar in Africa was concentrated on small-scale uses like irrigation and lighting. Now, it is diversifying. Namibia is developing large green hydrogen projects for European buyers, while solar-powered air conditioning is emerging as a vital growth sector.
‘The need for air conditioning in Africa is hugely unmet,’ Jones said, adding that solar is the ‘perfect fit’ where diesel or costly grid electricity once dominated.
With international solar panel prices at record lows – some retailing for as little as $60 – Jones stressed the importance of keeping imports flowing while recognising the wider economic benefits.
‘This revolution is starting to happen now,’ he said. ‘The citizens within the countries are ready to start taking steps to make change for themselves.’
But he cautioned that government hesitation risks slowing progress. Nigeria, he noted, initially sought to ban solar imports before reversing course after realising the potential economic harm. Infrastructure, he added, must also keep pace if Africa’s solar surge is to realise its full promise.
