Keypoints:
- 55 city pairs lack non-stop flights
- Cape Town–Lagos leads unmet demand
- Smaller aircraft may unlock routes
AFRICA’S direct-flight deficit has widened to 55 potentially viable intra-African routes, even as passenger demand rises and airlines launch new services, exposing a growing mismatch between how Africans travel and the air networks available across the continent.
The shortage of direct flights in Africa is no longer simply a demand problem. Embraer’s 2026 Africa Connectivity Report says fleet capacity, frequency, operating costs and fragmented regulation increasingly determine whether airlines can turn existing passenger flows into sustainable non-stop services.
Demand grows faster than networks
Released during the AviaDev conference in Gaborone, Botswana, the report identifies 55 intra-African origin-and-destination markets without scheduled non-stop flights but with enough existing traffic to potentially support direct services.
That represents an increase from 45 qualifying routes in Embraer’s 2025 assessment, suggesting demand is expanding faster than airlines are closing the continent’s connectivity gaps.
The study used Sabre passenger data covering April 2025 to March 2026 and included markets generating at least nine passengers daily in each direction. Embraer estimates that this level can potentially sustain three weekly regional-jet flights after stimulation from a direct service.
Passenger volumes alone, however, do not establish profitability. Fuel, airport charges, aircraft financing, currencies, seasonality and fares can determine whether a route survives.
Cape Town–Lagos leads unmet demand
Cape Town–Lagos tops the ranking with an estimated 70 passengers travelling daily in each direction. Embraer projects that a non-stop service could stimulate demand to about 94 passengers daily each way.
Cape Town–Lusaka follows with 49 passengers, ahead of Dakar–Libreville with 48, Bamako–Libreville with 37 and Abuja–Nairobi with 31.
Three South African routes appear among the 10 leading unserved markets: Cape Town–Lagos, Cape Town–Lusaka and Durban–Mauritius.
Durban–Mauritius climbed from 13th to sixth place after demand increased from 18 to 27 passengers daily each way. Embraer estimates that the market could support three weekly non-stop flights using an aircraft with about 120 seats.
The leisure component reflects the wider recovery in African tourism, where stronger arrivals are increasing pressure for better regional connections.
Smaller markets record rapid growth
Johannesburg–Mwanza recorded year-on-year growth of 272 percent, while Harare–Gqeberha rose by 137 percent. Asmara–Nairobi doubled, Lagos–Zanzibar increased by 92 percent and Cape Town–Zanzibar grew by 72 percent.
Cape Town–Francistown rose by 71 percent, Durban–Mauritius expanded by 70 percent and Cape Town–Lagos increased by 54 percent.
Embraer attributed the growth to tourism, commercial activity, diplomatic travel and visits to friends and relatives. The percentages still require care: rapid growth from a small base does not guarantee sufficient year-round revenue.
New services reveal a fragile market
Cape Town–Dar es Salaam left the ranking after Air Tanzania began serving the city pair in December 2025, showing that airlines can respond where demand and available aircraft align.
But route launches can be short-lived. Kenya Airways introduced a Nairobi–Douala–Abidjan operation in 2025, creating a non-stop sector between Douala and Abidjan. The airline removed the service from its schedule in mid-June 2026.
That reversal reinforces the report’s argument that launching a flight is not enough. Frequency, departure times, fares, reliability and aircraft size can determine whether passengers keep using it.
Smaller aircraft offer part of the answer
Embraer argues that many unserved intra-African routes generate less traffic than is normally required to sustain larger narrowbody aircraft.
Regional jets and smaller narrowbodies could allow airlines to operate with fewer seats to fill while providing the frequency required by business passengers.
Embraer manufactures the regional aircraft it identifies as suitable for these markets. Its conclusions should therefore be treated as a manufacturer’s commercial assessment rather than independent proof that all 55 routes would be profitable.
Even so, its passenger-flow analysis exposes a genuine network gap and gives airlines, airports and governments a clearer view of where demand already exists.
Costs remain the harder barrier
Fleet selection cannot overcome Africa’s structural aviation constraints alone.
IATA’s June 2026 outlook forecasts African passenger traffic to grow by 10 percent during the year, against capacity growth of 7.7 percent. Yet the continent’s airlines are expected to generate only $0.1bn in net profit, with an operating margin of 2.5 percent.
Operating efficiency could improve through Free Route Airspace in Western and Central Africa, which allows carriers to use shorter and more flexible flight paths.
Wider gains will remain limited without stronger implementation of the Single African Air Transport Market, lower airport costs and fewer restrictions on market access.
African ministers have renewed efforts to reduce flight costs, but carriers remain exposed to expensive fuel, limited capital, blocked funds and fragmented national regulations.
What happens next?
The report gives airlines a shortlist of markets where passengers already accept longer journeys and inconvenient connections because non-stop alternatives do not exist.
Cape Town–Lagos represents the clearest opportunity, but its distance, operating costs and the financial position of African carriers make a launch far from automatic.
Africa needs more than route announcements. It needs services built around realistic demand, suitable aircraft, competitive fares, dependable schedules and regulations that allow airlines to survive beyond the excitement of an inaugural flight.
