Keypoints:
- African economies hit by rising oil prices and disrupted shipping routes
- Military bases in the Horn of Africa lie within range of Iran-aligned forces
- Diplomatic tensions grow as African governments navigate global rivalries
AFRICAN countries are increasingly feeling the consequences of the escalating conflict in the Middle East, as rising oil prices, trade disruptions and security concerns spread far beyond the region.
From the Horn of Africa to West Africa’s largest economies, governments are confronting new economic pressure and strategic uncertainty linked to the war.
Analysts warn that Africa’s geographical proximity to critical maritime routes and the presence of foreign military bases make the continent particularly vulnerable to the fallout from Middle Eastern instability.
Africa is ‘structurally exposed’ to developments in the region, according to Hubert Kinkoh, a senior researcher at the CARPO think tank in Bonn, Germany.
‘Energy imports, foreign military bases and the continent’s proximity to maritime chokepoints mean the war’s effects reach African shores quickly,’ Kinkoh told AFP.
The warning comes as tensions across the Red Sea corridor continue to threaten global shipping routes and strategic infrastructure across East Africa.
Military bases near the conflict zone raise concerns
One of the most sensitive locations is Djibouti, where Camp Lemonnier hosts roughly 4,000 United States troops and serves as Washington’s primary military base on the African continent.
The base lies less than 160 kilometres from Yemen, where Iran-aligned Houthi fighters possess ballistic missiles, drones and anti-ship weapons capable of targeting shipping lanes and nearby military facilities.
Although the Houthis have not yet entered the current phase of the conflict, they have previously disrupted global trade by attacking vessels passing through the Red Sea during the Israel-Hamas war.
Security analysts warn that the risk of escalation remains if Iran-linked groups decide to widen their military operations.
Another location attracting attention is Somaliland, where the port city of Berbera hosts a major logistics and military facility operated by the United Arab Emirates, a regional rival of Iran.
Israel recently became the first country to formally recognise Somaliland’s independence from Somalia. According to a Western diplomat cited by AFP, Israeli personnel may already be stationed in the territory.
Kinkoh noted that Berbera’s strategic location near the southern entrance of the Red Sea makes it particularly sensitive.
‘Berbera is not a confirmed target, but its position leaves it vulnerable if Iran-aligned groups expand the list of facilities they view as linked to US or allied operations,’ he said.
Economic fallout spreads across African markets
Beyond security risks, the conflict is already producing economic shockwaves across Africa.
The war has disrupted global trade routes and forced many shipping companies to avoid the Suez Canal, diverting vessels along the longer and more expensive route around the Cape of Good Hope.
This shift has increased transport costs and pushed up global prices for essential commodities, including energy and food — both of which are heavily imported by many African economies.
The rise in oil prices is particularly significant for countries already struggling with high debt levels and inflation.
In Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producer, petrol pump prices rose by about 14 percent this week as global markets reacted to the conflict.
Despite its vast crude reserves, Nigeria remains dependent on imported refined fuel because of limited domestic refining capacity.
The country has also struggled to benefit from the latest oil price spike because much of its crude exports are tied to long-term contracts negotiated at lower prices.
A recent report by Lagos-based think tank SBM Intelligence said the crisis has exposed weaknesses in Nigeria’s foreign policy strategy.
The report argued that the government’s ‘wait-and-see’ approach to international crises leaves the country’s economic interests vulnerable to forces beyond its control.
Migrant workers and remittances under threat
The conflict also poses risks for the hundreds of thousands of African migrant workers employed in Gulf states.
Remittances from these workers play a vital role in supporting families and national economies across Africa.
Previous crises in the Middle East have exposed major gaps in evacuation planning and emergency response systems for African workers abroad.
Analysts warn that if the conflict expands, thousands could face uncertainty or difficulties returning home.
Diplomatic tensions and geopolitical shifts
Diplomatically, the crisis is placing some African governments under international scrutiny as they attempt to balance competing alliances.
South Africa has been particularly exposed after criticising Israel and hosting Iranian warships during naval exercises earlier this year.
Although the South African government later distanced itself from the exercises, analysts say the episode has complicated its efforts to present itself as a neutral actor in global affairs.
Timothy Walker of the Institute for Security Studies said Pretoria will struggle to convince partners of its non-aligned stance.
‘South Africa will want to reinforce the message that it is a neutral actor,’ Walker said. ‘But that is difficult given Iran’s visible role in the naval exercises.’
William Gumede, professor of public management at the University of the Witwatersrand, warned that geopolitical posturing could carry economic consequences.
‘Our economy is very vulnerable,’ Gumede said. ‘We do not have the luxury to grandstand globally.’
War may reshape influence in Africa
In the longer term, the conflict could reshape geopolitical influence across Africa.
Over the past decade, Gulf powers such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, along with Turkey, have expanded their presence on the continent through investments in ports, infrastructure and energy projects.
These countries have also supplied military equipment and established strategic bases in several African states.
Some analysts believe the new conflict could shift that balance if Middle Eastern governments are forced to focus more on domestic security.
According to SBM Intelligence, a reduction in external involvement could open space for African-led diplomatic initiatives.
‘If Gulf states become preoccupied with defending their own territory,’ the report noted, ‘their role in African conflicts could diminish, potentially allowing African peace efforts to gain momentum.’
For now, however, Africa remains exposed to the ripple effects of a war unfolding far beyond its borders — yet already shaping the continent’s security, economy and diplomacy.
