Keypoints:
- Africa asserts control over mineral value
- DRC, Zimbabwe lead local beneficiation push
- China, Gulf nations deepen strategic stakes
AFRICA’S critical mineral wealth has become central to global energy transition ambitions, positioning the continent as both an opportunity and a battleground for investment, influence, and industrial ambition. According to the Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025 by the IEA, the continent’s reserves of cobalt, lithium, graphite, manganese, and platinum-group metals have made it indispensable to global supply chains. But unlocking this potential demands more than geology — it requires policy precision, infrastructure investment, and a recalibration of Africa’s place in the global value chain.
Dominance in reserves, lag in beneficiation
Africa’s footprint in the critical minerals space is undisputed. The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) alone produces around 70 percent of the world’s mined cobalt. South Africa dominates global platinum group metal output, while the continent contributes 17 percent of global copper and 11 percent of lithium. Yet, despite this dominance, the majority of African nations continue to export these minerals in raw form — a persistent barrier to value retention and broader economic transformation.
The structural problem is clear: Africa remains a resource supplier rather than a value creator. While the continent’s minerals feed the world’s clean energy ambitions, the dividends of this extraction are disproportionately captured elsewhere.
Emerging investments: The Middle East and China take the lead
There is growing momentum to shift this imbalance. The IEA highlights increased foreign investments — particularly from China, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE — in African processing facilities and logistics infrastructure. A lithium plant nearing completion in Zimbabwe, backed by Chinese investors, is a signal of this evolving dynamic. Gulf states, meanwhile, are funding new port infrastructure, seeking strategic footholds across mineral transit corridors.
However, this new wave of investment underscores a deeper geopolitical realignment: China’s dominance in critical mineral processing is now being contested by Gulf nations seeking to diversify their own energy transition portfolios and reduce dependency on Western technologies. Africa is the arena where these ambitions converge.
Policy recalibration: from extraction to transformation
In response, African governments are taking more assertive stances. Zimbabwe has enacted export bans and levies on raw lithium, aiming to develop local processing industries and retain more economic value. Its 2023 Base Minerals Export Control Order not only restricts exports but also seeks to lure investors into domestic beneficiation.
The DRC, too, has implemented temporary cobalt export bans and is mulling production quotas, while simultaneously exploring a security partnership with the United States to safeguard its mining regions — a nod to the complex relationship between resource governance and regional security.
These actions signal a growing willingness among African policymakers to intervene in markets and prioritise industrial policy. While some measures risk investor unease, they reflect a clear pivot: from being passive suppliers to strategic actors in the global minerals race.
Transparency push: combating the resource curse
Equally important is the growing regional focus on transparency and governance. Zambia’s ZIMIS platform aims to digitise mining licence management, Zimbabwe has expanded its definition of ‘beneficial owner’ to expose corruption, and the DRC is pushing for stronger mineral traceability standards under the Great Lakes framework. These are critical steps in dismantling the opacity that has long fuelled illicit trade, revenue leakage, and conflict financing.
Still, enforcement remains the Achilles’ heel. Without robust institutional capacity and regional coordination, such reforms risk being symbolic rather than transformative.
Outlook: potential amid peril
The IEA estimates that Africa’s energy mineral production was worth $50bn in 2024, with refining contributing a further $16bn. By 2040, this combined value could rise to nearly $83bn — but only if infrastructure, skills, and governance challenges are tackled head-on. The continent’s share of refined minerals may grow to 4 percent of the global market, driven by copper refining in the DRC and nickel in South Africa and Madagascar.
But that growth is neither guaranteed nor automatic. Without coordinated investment in power supply, technical training, transport networks, and legal frameworks, Africa risks remaining locked in the low-value segment of the mineral economy.
Seizing the moment
Africa’s critical mineral landscape is at a pivotal juncture. With growing investor interest and a shifting policy environment, the continent has a rare opportunity to reshape its role in global supply chains. But real transformation will depend on how effectively African nations can move from rhetoric to results — turning resource wealth into industrial capability, and mineral abundance into long-term prosperity.
The decisions taken now — in capitals from Kinshasa to Harare to Lusaka — will determine whether Africa becomes a cornerstone of the green industrial age, or remains a mere quarry for the ambitions of others.
