Keypoints
- AfCFTA goals clash with weak implementation
- Structural and political barriers stall trade growth
- Progress hinges on infrastructure and value addition
SIX years after its signing, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is still struggling to move from vision to reality. Launched with the promise of creating a single African market, spurring trade and lifting millions out of poverty, it remains bogged down by weak implementation, political hesitation and persistent structural barriers.
When African leaders signed the agreement on May 30, 2018, it was hailed as a ‘game-changer’ – a blueprint to transform Africa’s economic fortunes by knitting together a market of 1.3bn people with a combined GDP of $3.4trn. Yet as the anniversary passed this year, the mood was far less celebratory.
Only Eritrea has flatly rejected AfCFTA, while Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali are suspended after military takeovers. In total, 45 countries have ratified the treaty. But as Africa Kiiza, a doctoral fellow at Universität Hamburg, puts it: ‘The aspirations and ambitions of AfCFTA are brilliant. The problem was in putting the cart before the horse.’
The dream of a continental market
From the start, AfCFTA was cast as a flagship project of the African Union’s Agenda 2063 – the masterplan for Africa’s long-term transformation. The deal’s goals were ambitious: boost intra-African trade by 53 percent, grow manufacturing by $1trn, generate $470bn in income, create 14 million jobs and lift 50 million people out of poverty.
The agreement was also designed to pave the way towards a continental customs union and, eventually, an African Economic Community. But implementation has lagged far behind these ambitions.
Prof Dunia Zongwe, Associate Professor of Law at the University of Namibia, argues the deal reflects a broader dilemma: ‘Africa’s future is being imagined through frameworks imported from elsewhere.’
Slow start to real trade
The AfCFTA Secretariat was set up in 2020, but tellingly, it has relied heavily on German development agency GIZ for funding and technical support. While this has advanced negotiations on rules of origin, dispute settlement and digital trade, it also highlights Africa’s dependence on external backers.
Actual trading has been slow to take off. Before AfCFTA, intra-African trade hovered between 12 and 18 percent. In 2022, the Guided Trade Initiative launched to kick-start commerce, but trade levels remain below 20 percent. According to the African Export-Import Bank )Afreximbank), trade between African states rose 7.7 percent in 2024 to $208bn – still a fraction of potential.
By year-end 2024, 31 of the 45 countries that ratified the deal had initiated some form of AfCFTA trade. While that is progress compared with just seven in 2023, it remains far from the scale needed to transform Africa’s trade profile.
‘The fruits of the trading bloc are low-hanging, but they will ripen incrementally depending on implementation,’ says Prof Zongwe. Yet he notes Africa’s policy implementation rate stands at just seven percent, a figure the AU itself concedes is far too low.
Barriers remain entrenched
The obstacles to AfCFTA’s success are formidable. Many smaller economies fear the agreement primarily serves Africa’s largest markets, leaving them exposed to competition without sufficient safeguards.
Visa restrictions reveal the gulf in integration: a US citizen can travel to 24 African countries visa-free, while a Ugandan can access only nine. Only four states have ratified the AU’s protocol on free movement of people – a critical enabler of trade.
Tariff inconsistencies also undermine the pact’s goals. Ghana, the world’s second-largest cocoa producer, still faces a 30 percent tariff exporting chocolate to South Africa, while Swiss chocolate enters tariff-free. ‘The idea that liberalisation before building capacity of small nations will automatically increase trade is flawed,’ says Kiiza.
Infrastructure: the missing backbone
Trade in Africa is made costlier by poor infrastructure. Transport networks are weak, border procedures inefficient, and logistics systems underdeveloped. Foreign shipping companies dominate sea trade – controlling 98 percent of African shipping lines – and rail networks connect only 0.1 percent of the continent.
Non-tariff barriers (NTBs) add another layer of cost. Subsidies, import bans, cumbersome customs rules and corruption are frequently used as political tools. In the East African Community alone, NTBs were estimated to cost $17 million in 2023. Without strong AfCFTA provisions to restrict such practices, they will remain a drag on trade.
The tariff dilemma
AfCFTA sets a 15-year schedule to liberalise 97 percent of goods by 2034. But many reductions are yet to begin, with several countries reluctant to give up tariff revenues or expose local industries. As Prof Zongwe notes: ‘Some countries balk at fully opening their markets because they fear losing revenue or the adverse effects of stiffer competition on domestic industries.’
To cushion the blow, Africa has established a $10bn Trade Adjustment Fund to offset tariff revenue losses and invest in supply chains and infrastructure. But the fund’s impact is still to be tested at scale.
Lessons from regional blocs
AfCFTA also faces challenges rooted in Africa’s patchwork of regional economic communities. Many were meant to be stepping stones to continental integration, yet remain mired in rivalry. The East African Community, once seen as a model, is showing cracks due to political disputes and uneven commitment.
The lesson is clear: without stronger trust and deeper coordination, AfCFTA risks repeating these failures on a continental scale.
The way forward
If AfCFTA is to deliver, leaders must shift from rhetoric to execution. Analysts argue three priorities stand out:
- Infrastructure investment – Roads, rail, ports and digital connectivity must be expanded to cut trade costs.
- Policy harmonisation – Countries need to align customs rules, standards and visa regimes to ease business flows.
- Value addition – Africa must break its dependency on raw material exports by developing regional value chains in manufacturing and agro-processing.
Ultimately, AfCFTA’s fate rests on whether African governments can summon the political will to implement what they have signed. Without that, the agreement risks joining a long line of grand integration projects that remain more aspiration than achievement.
