Keypoints:
- Intra-African trade approaches $230bn milestone
- AfCFTA accelerates regional value chains shift
- Structural bottlenecks still threaten momentum
INTRA-AFRICAN trade is approaching $230bn, signalling a structural shift in how Africa produces, trades and retains value as the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) begins to take hold across the continent.
According to the latest report by the African Export-Import Bank, detailed in 2025 African Trade Report, this growth reflects a deeper transformation—one that is gradually reducing Africa’s dependence on external markets while strengthening regional economic integration.
As explored in Africa Briefing’s analysis of Africa’s trade potential, the continent is increasingly positioning itself around internal demand rather than external dependence.
Why this moment matters now
For decades, Africa’s trade model has been outward-facing, built on exporting raw commodities and importing finished goods. This left economies exposed to global price shocks, supply chain disruptions and shifting geopolitical dynamics.
Afreximbank’s 2025 African Trade Report shows that pattern is beginning to change. Intra-African trade reached roughly $220bn to $230bn in 2024, growing faster than the continent’s external trade flows.
Historically, trade within Africa has accounted for just 15 percent of total commerce—far below regions such as the European Union, where intra-regional trade exceeds 60 percent. The current shift, while still modest in comparison, marks a meaningful break from that trend.
The rise of intra-African value chains
The expansion of regional trade is increasingly tied to the development of intra-African value chains.
Rather than exporting raw materials directly to global markets, countries are beginning to process and trade goods within the continent. This is particularly visible in sectors such as agro-processing, manufacturing, pharmaceuticals and energy.
Economies including Nigeria, Kenya, South Africa and Egypt are emerging as key nodes in these evolving supply chains, leveraging industrial capacity and regional demand.
This shift is gradual but significant. It signals a move towards retaining more value within Africa—an essential step for long-term economic transformation.
AfCFTA’s real impact so far
While AfCFTA is often framed as a long-term ambition, its early effects are already visible.
Tariff reductions under the agreement are lowering the cost of cross-border trade, while efforts to harmonise customs procedures and standards are beginning to ease long-standing barriers.
More importantly, AfCFTA is reshaping expectations. Governments and investors are increasingly planning around a continental market of over 1.3 billion people, rather than fragmented national economies.
- This shift in mindset is driving:
- Investment in cross-border infrastructure
- Expansion of logistics and trade corridors
- Growing interest in regional manufacturing
As explored in Africa Briefing’s analysis of Africa’s role in global supply chains, this evolving market logic is beginning to influence both public policy and private capital flows.
The financial systems enabling the shift
Trade integration requires financial infrastructure, and this is where Afreximbank is playing a central role.
The bank has expanded trade finance across the continent, targeting a gap estimated at over $100bn. Limited access to credit remains one of the biggest constraints on African businesses, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises.
At the same time, payment innovation is reducing friction in cross-border trade. Systems such as the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS), supported by Afreximbank, allow transactions to be settled in local currencies.
This reduces reliance on the US dollar, lowers transaction costs and improves liquidity—key factors in scaling intra-African commerce.
As highlighted in Africa Briefing’s coverage of the cross-border payment system rollout, reducing payment friction is central to scaling intra-African trade.
The bottlenecks holding Africa back
Despite the momentum, significant structural challenges remain.
Infrastructure deficits continue to raise the cost of trade, with gaps in transport, energy and logistics estimated at over $100bn annually.
Regulatory fragmentation also persists. While AfCFTA aims to harmonise trade rules, implementation remains uneven across countries, slowing progress.
Access to finance is another constraint. While large firms are benefiting from regional integration, smaller businesses—despite accounting for up to 90 percent of enterprises—often lack the capital needed to participate fully.
Without addressing these barriers, the current growth trajectory could lose momentum.
Africa in a changing global economy
Africa’s trade shift is unfolding against a backdrop of global economic fragmentation.
Rising geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions and protectionist policies are reshaping global trade patterns. For Africa, this presents both risks and opportunities.
On one hand, reliance on external markets remains a vulnerability. On the other, global supply chain realignment is creating space for new production hubs.
Afreximbank said the shift reflects a ‘reconfiguration of Africa’s trade architecture’, underscoring the growing importance of regional integration in navigating global uncertainty.
As Africa navigates shifting global trade dynamics, the continent’s positioning in this transition could define its long-term economic trajectory.
What comes next
The $230bn milestone represents an early stage in a longer-term transformation.
- Sustaining this momentum will depend on:
- Accelerating AfCFTA implementation
- Scaling infrastructure investment
- Expanding access to trade finance
- Strengthening industrial capacity
Afreximbank suggests that intra-African trade could double within the next decade if these conditions are met, signalling a profound shift in the continent’s economic trajectory.
A structural shift, not a temporary trend
What is emerging is not simply a rise in trade volumes, but a reorganisation of Africa’s economic model.
Africa is gradually moving from exporting raw commodities to building regional value chains, from external dependence to internal integration, and from fragmented economies to a more unified market.
As Afreximbank’s report makes clear, the transition is still in its early stages—but the direction is unmistakable.
Africa is no longer just participating in global trade. It is beginning to redefine how it trades, and on whose terms.
